Bill Grundy

Member
When you have a lot of money you have more wiggle room to take risks with. Those mysterious Sharps usually get a few wins of substantial amounts under their belts and then ONLY use that plus money that they have from those wins to grow their bank ledgers. Risking only what you've won - that's 'HOUSE MONEY.'
Joe square pants public, on the other hand, who runs from pay check to pay check and would go sunny side up if shorted by as little as $200 off the top in an emergency. Joe lives dangerously close to the low waterline and so any flood of errors in the bank's favour would drown the average Joe quite rapidly these days. As is the case when there is no where else to draw hope from in a faint hope situation, many regular Joe's have been taking to using their houses as ATM machines to get second and third mortgages to fund access to the basic necessities for them and their families. It isn't fun being Joe these days as you might imagine. Sadly, in some instances some Joe's are way up that shiny creek called 'poo' with no less than 8! freaking mortgages in play. Those are very unlucky Joes headed for what banks call 'jingle mail' -when people too far in debt just abandon their homes and then simply mail their keys in an envelope to those smiling bankers.

Early NFL Week 14 Line Moves:

The Pros have moved on the Oakland Raiders line already at +4.5 @ Kansas City this week moving the line to 4 and 3.5 in some spots. Public likes the Saints, but the line moves from ATLANTA -1.5 to 2 and that is sharp money doing that. Minnesota now sits as a -3 point favourite on the road in Carolina drifting from its original spot as a single point favourite. Sharp's quickly took that 1 and the 2.5 on the Vikings and voila the resulting 3. The public has not been interested in Minnesota this year as much as the sharps have been but this week they've suddenly had a change of mind with 70% of the bets showing up with Vikings stamped on them. While we predicted Green Bay would attract money Cleveland has actually been attracting money from somewhere moving that line down to 3.5 instead of the anticipated 4. The Philly @ LA Rams game is expected to draw sharp money on the under.

Tip of the week for totals players to consider. If the total is NOT weather driven, its usually Sharp driven.

Top NFL Public Bets
#1
Baltimore Ravens
94%

#2
Seattle Seahawks
84%

#3
New York Jets
76%

#4
New England Patriots
76%

#5
Philadelphia Eagles
75%

#6
Pittsburgh Steelers
71%

#7
Minnesota Vikings
70%

#8
Dallas Cowboys
69%

#9
Green Bay Packers
69%

#10
Houston Texans
67%

Hope these help.

Remember to ALWAYS walk your dogs!
 
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Bill Grundy

Member
Upon reviewing the public bets you might have noticed Baltimore @ 94% of the bets so far while the team they play is Pittsburgh with 71% of the current bets...That math is not working for me either. Stay tuned.
 

Bill Grundy

Member
https://www.bangthebook.com/nfl-opening-line-report-week-14/

NFL WEEK 14 OPENING LINE WATCH

Yes we still have MORE football here as we head into the dark days of December, so in case your stuck in a traffic jam or equally dozing off in a long line up at the local 'Try N' $ave' you know that if your going to try and make your money back before New Year's...you'll need to pay attention because we still have four weeks left of NFL regular season action, so don’t forget about that. After several weeks with big lines, we have a more traditional setup coming in Week 14. The only double-digit favorite is New England on Monday Night Football and that is the only line north of a touchdown. It has already dropped from its original setting of 12 so there is Miami $$$ involved.

We’ve seen favorites do really well this season and we’ve seen some huge lines, but it feels comforting to see a pretty normal setup in the NFL. There are no bye weeks. There is only one Thursday game. Familiarity feels good at this time of the NFL season and maybe that will lead to some more consistent results for those that set the market. On the other hand, if you’re a public bettor, this may not be the type of week that you want to see.

Week 14 Opening Line Report:

New Orleans at Atlanta (PK, 53.5) – Some shops, like DSI Sportsbook, are at pick ‘em, while others like Pinnacle and 5Dimes are at -1. The shops sitting at -1 do have extra juice on the New Orleans side, so it looks like we could see road chalk on Thursday Night Football this week if the opening action continues. We rarely see road favorites without a clear mismatch in these short-week games, but the Saints answered the bell against the Panthers and the Falcons did not. This is probably the best Thursday Nighter we’ve had all season, so we’ll see a lot of investment.

Oakland at Kansas City (-3.5, 47.5) – Bookmaker moved the Raiders from the opener of 4.5 to 3.5 based on early-week sharp action from those out there grabbing numbers. If the Chiefs were a stock, the arrow trending down would look like a sled riding hill. What’s weird here is that Oakland will get Michael Crabtree back from suspension, but may still be without Amari Cooper. The Chiefs had over 10 yards per play against the Jets, but couldn’t get off the field. I’d expect we see this line bounce back, but, for now, the Raiders are the preferred side.

San Francisco at Houston (-1.5, 42.5) – Despite a great showing from Jimmy Garoppolo and a road win for the Niners, the Texans are the preferred side this week. Houston should have covered against Tennessee last week, but Derrick Henry’s 75-yard scamper was the most brutal front-door cover of the season. The 49ers are off a rare road win and are playing a second straight road game, so the numbers guys are sniffing around this one. This is a traditional NFL handicap. Fade the team off the rare win playing a second straight road game. When we get higher limits later in the week, it will be interesting to see where this number goes.

Minnesota (-3, 41) at Carolina
– Minnesota has found its stride. After a slew of injuries early in the season, Mike Zimmer’s defense is doing work and Case Keenum leads the NFL in DVOA, for those that use some of those advanced metrics. The Panthers had a little run, but have been pretty inconsistent throughout the season. Minnesota opened a one-point favorite for a second straight road game against the NFC South, but the market drove this one up to 3. This should be a resistance point for the line movement. If it blows through to 3.5, you’ll know that we have some extremely sharp money driving this one.

Green Bay (-3.5, 41) at Cleveland – This will be a fun line to watch. The Packers needed extra time to dispose of the Buccaneers after being steamed heavily last week. This week, the Packers visit the hapless Browns, who managed to cover last week against the Chargers. Green Bay isn’t the type of team that you want to take laying a road number, but Cleveland isn’t the type of team you want to take at any number. We’ve seen Bookmaker and 5Dimes slide down to 3 on this one. It feels like the type of game that does go down to 2.5 by kickoff.

Dallas (-5.5, 41.5) at New York Giants – We saw a bit of a move in the market with the announcement that Ben McAdoo has been fired. Dallas was laying a full six, but some shops have dropped off of 6 to 5.5. McAdoo had lost this offense and this defense. Per reports from ESPN’s Jordan Raanan, the Giants weren’t even around when McAdoo was fired. Something tells me that nobody will shed a tear. Also, Eli Manning is back at quarterback. The Giants also fired GM Jerry Reese. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will be the interim. The Cowboys had a really misleading win last week, so the move on the Giants makes sense in that regard as well. Those 'pseudo' wise guys and their insider info biuddies were on the Giants last week in Oakland and got their backdoor cover and are now moving this line down right now.

Washington at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 45.5) – The Chargers are hot now. As mentioned on Monday’s edition of BangTheBook Radio, the Chargers are just 4-for-14 in the red zone over the last three games. That would make it tough to cover a touchdown. Only 5Dimes is still at 7 because of teaser protection. The rest of the market is sitting at 6.5 here with initial investment on the Redskins.

Tennessee (-3, 44) at Arizona – Arizona was in a great spot against the Rams last week and fell completely flat. The Titans, who seem to be rated really highly by oddsmakers and bettors, head to the desert laying a field goal. This number opened 3.5, but those are all gone, replaced by 3 flat or 3 -105. This line should sit here for a while and books would be thrilled to stay on the key number all week.

New York Jets (-1.5, 40.5) at Denver
– The Jets have been far more trustworthy for bettors this season. Sometimes, that’s all it takes. Denver is a bad bet in every sense of the word. The Jets have been really competitive. Denver opened a small favorite, but only The Greek and DSI still have the Broncos favored at time of writing. A couple shops are dealing pick ‘em, but most have the Jets a slight favorite. We’ll see if that holds throughout the week.

Seattle at Jacksonville (-3, 39.5) – Seattle catches a little bit of a break in that this game was flexed to 4 p.m. so it won’t be an early kickoff. The Jaguars opened a 3.5-point favorite at Bookmaker, but the initial money to hit the market trickled in on Seattle to move the line to -3 -120. That isn’t a big difference, nor is it a big move. Seattle’s big win over Philadelphia earned a little bit of respect for the Seahawks in the market and I wouldn’t be shocked to see this number keep creeping down.

Philadelphia at Los Angeles Rams (-2, 51) – Books have been a little bit cautious to open up a number for this game. The Eagles are coming off of a disappointing performance, but it was coming at some point. The Rams rolled on the road over Arizona and have two good bounce back wins after their last loss. Philadelphia has a long week of being on the road here. The Eagles did fly from Seattle to the Anaheim area, so they’ll spend all week away from home.

New England (-11.5, 47.5) at Miami – It really doesn’t seem to matter what number you put in front of the Patriots these days. They’re covering it anyway. New England has covered six straight of 2.5, 6.5, 7, 7, 16.5, and 7.5. They just played Miami two weeks ago and won 35-17 as a 16.5-point favorite. The Dolphins blew out Denver and have an extra day, but oddsmakers can’t set Pats lines high enough.

Hope these help.

Please Remember To ALWAYS WALK Your Dogs!
 

Bill Grundy

Member
Without question, the best Week 14 NFL games are in the NFC, as the playoff picture continues to evolve.

The Following Report From Covers:

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2)

New Orleans had a one-game hiccup, then got right back to its winning ways and now stands atop the NFC South. The Saints (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) saw their eight-game win streak end in Week 12 at the Los Angeles Rams, but came home Sunday and beat Carolina 31-21 as a 5.5-point chalk.

Defending NFC champion Atlanta is making things tough for itself to even get back to the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl. The Falcons (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) had a nice little three-game SU and ATS win streak, then had a dismal offensive showing and lost at home to Minnesota 14-9 as a 2-point favorite in Week 13.

“Our team was anywhere from a pick ‘em to -3 for this matchup,” Cooley said. “The deuce felt like a fair number. We can see where the bettors are leaning early and adjust from there. We anticipate Saints money from the public, and this line could head south sooner than later.”

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+1)

Minnesota just keeps on rolling behind a top-notch defense that ranks No. 2 in the league in scoring, allowing just 17 points per game. On Sunday, the Vikings (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) went to Atlanta as a 2-point underdog and won a defensive slog 14-9.

Carolina (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won and cashed four straight heading into Sunday’s showdown with New Orleans. But the Panthers couldn’t keep it going, losing 31-21 catching 5.5 points.

“No matter how many wins, the Vikings don’t get any love from the general betting public,” Cooley said. “Sharps were on them again (against the Saints), and likely will be here, but the squares aren’t hopping aboard, so these spreads are kept somewhat at bay. Of course, you have to think Minnesota is going to stumble at some point.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (no line)

Philadelphia has been the class of the NFC this season, but its impressive winning streak of nine games SU and eight games ATS finally ended Sunday night. The Eagles (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) went off as 3.5-point road chalk against Seattle and lost outright, 24-10.

Los Angeles is red-hot of late, going 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven outings. The NFC West-leading Rams (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) doubled up Arizona 32-16 giving 7.5 points on the road Sunday.

With Philly having played in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu won’t post the line on this game until Monday.

“Depending on how Sunday night plays out, we could make this anywhere from a pick to L.A. a small ‘dog,” Cooley said. “If the latter happens, the Rams feel like a very live ‘dog at home. Despite the two prolific offenses, I expect to see sharp players on the under.”

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

Kansas City started the season 5-0 SU and ATS and was 6-2 SU and ATS through eight weeks. The Chiefs (6-6 SU and ATS) haven’t won since then, dumping four in a row to fall into a three-way logjam atop the AFC West with Oakland and San Diego. On Sunday, K.C. blew a 14-0 lead by the end of the first quarter and ultimately lost to the New York Jets 38-31 as a 4-point road fave.

Oakland has also played far below expectations this season, but has won three of its last four (1-2-1 ATS). In Week 13, the Raiders (6-6 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) held off the New York Giants 24-17 giving 10 points at home.

“Early action from the pros has been on Oakland, which prompted a 1-point move. They really don’t like this K.C. squad right now, and it’s obvious why,” Cooley said of sharp Raiders action forcing Bookmaker down to K.C. -3.5. “That said, you know this losing streak is going to end soon, and this is a season-defining type of game for the Chiefs. Expect their best effort here.”

Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers.

Please Remember To ALWAYS WALK Your Dogs!
 

Bill Grundy

Member
Updating the public bets so far and please note its Baltimore and NOT Pittsburgh who is on Joe's mind this week 14 @ a 71% clip and NOT the wild 94% posted early yesterday.

Top NFL Public Bets
#1
Seattle Seahawks
80%

#2
New England Patriots
78%

#3
New York Jets
77%

#4
Green Bay Packers
76%

#5
Cincinnati Bengals
71%

#6
Dallas Cowboys
71%

#7
Baltimore Ravens
71%


#8
Philadelphia Eagles
68%

#9
Minnesota Vikings
67%

#10
New Orleans Saints
64%

Please Remember To Always Walk Your Dogs.
 
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Bill Grundy

Member
Week 14 Mid-Week Betting Report

Saints at Falcons, 8:25 p.m. ET, Thursday
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Saints opened as a 2-point road underdog for their pivotal NFC South matchup with the Falcons but the line has since jumped the fence. Now New Orleans is a 1.5-point road favorite with over 60% of betting tickets on the Saints to cover. The underdog is 13-3 against the spread in the last 16 meetings between these two teams.

Jets at Broncos, 4:05 p.m. ET, Sunday
The Broncos are slumping worse than any team in the NFL right now, so it makes sense that they would open as a 1.5-point favorite against the Jets only to watch the line jump the fence. New York, which is a competitive 5-7 on the year, is now a 1.5-point road favorite to beat the Broncos. That said, the Jets are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games versus Denver.

Ravens at Steelers, 8:30 p.m. ET, Sunday
The Steelers opened as a 7-point home favorite for this AFC North rivalry but the Ravens are now just a 5-point road underdog for Sunday night's game. Perhaps oddsmakers saw the Steelers fall behind 17-3 in Cincinnati on Monday night and realized the line for their game against the Ravens was set too high. Baltimore is 4-1-1 against the spread in its last six games versus Pittsburgh.

Vikings at Panthers, 1:00 p.m. ET
The Panthers opened as a 1-point home underdog but the line jumped to Minnesota -3 before moving back down to 2.5. The underdog is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams but the Vikings have covered in five of the last seven meetings overall.

Other Line Movements: The 49ers opened as a 1.5-point road underdog at the Texans but now Houston is a 3-point home favorite…the Cowboys are now 4.5-point road favorites to beat the host Giants, who opened as 6-point home underdogs…the Rams opened as a 1-point home favorite against the Eagles on Sunday but the line was taken up to L.A. -2.

Please Remember To Always Walk Your Dogs!