This week’s NFL card kicks off Thursday night with a non-Conference match between the Bengals and Eagles from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia
Thursday night road favorites coming off a straight-up loss have won five-straight times, outscoring their opponent by more than two touchdowns
The Bengals (7-6 SU) are coming off a home loss to Dallas and sit just a half-game outside the AFC playoff bubble. The damage could have been worse had the Steelers (7-6 SU) and Ravens (9-4 SU) not also lost. Pittsburgh owns a tie-breaker with Cinci from the 24-7 win in Week 7 and the teams will meet again in Week 16 at Heinz Field.
Philadelphia (4-9 SU) has been relegated to the role of spoiler and online sportsbooks list the Eagles as a 4.5-point underdog for this contest. NFL odds currently show a total of 44.5 but that’s down from an opening line of 46.
SLOW STARTS
Dallas and the New York Giants played under the number when the season kicked off Wednesday, September 5 and it triggered a run of six-straight low scoring games to start the week. The record for Thursday games since 2009 is 15 overs and 29 unders but Cincinnati has bounced back from a straight-up loss with an “Over” three times this season and nine of the past 12 opportunities.
Thursday road favorites since 2007 have produced 13 overs and 10 unders, outscoring the host team 27.1 to 20.4 and the sports betting public are clearly backing the Bengals to cover (82-percent) but teams led by rookie QBs have scored an average of 27.3 points against Cinci’s defense this season and the Eagles offense hasn’t shown any quit.
Philadelphia rookie Nick Foles led his team to 23 points in his debut vs. Dallas (Week 10), filling in for Michael Vick), and Foles leaned on fellow green thumb Bryce Brown to put up 22 points in his only other home game vs. Carolina in Week 12.
The thing to consider is that the four rookie quarterbacks to face Cincinnati this year all did so before Week 7. Since then the Bengals are 4-2 straight-up and have only allowed 15.5 points per contest.
NFL PICKS
Non-Conference road teams coming off a home loss have a history of high-scoring games when playing on a short week and the Eagles have allowed 30.9 PPG since their Week 7 bye. Regardless of what Philly’s offense can do against this vastly improved Bengals defense, look for Cincinnati to do some damage on the scoreboard.
Take the Bengals Team Total Over 24.5 points
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