Trevor Siemian comes into Tampa off a 300-yard, four-TD performance against Cincy
By Pick Sixty Sports
The Denver Broncos will try and keep their perfect season intact Sunday when they travel to Tampa to face a Bucs team that’s coming off back-to-back losses.
DENVER AT TAMPA BAY
Bovada Odds: Broncos -3 and O/U 43
The Broncos were on everyone’s watchlist in the season opener against Carolina and the defense looked just as impressive as it did in 2015. They handled Andrew Luck and the Colts in Week 2 and then once again, went on the rookie radar screen as Trevor Siemian played his first National Football League road game.
Siemian answered the call in Cincinnati, throwing for over 300 yards and four touchdowns in a 29-17 win. Siemian’s passing yardage has been on a steady increase since the win over Carolina (178 PY), and there’s no reason for him to let up against the Buccaneer secondary.
Denver’s offense should be loose and really, has there been a much better place for road teams in the past 10 years or so? Tampa Bay is 17-40 straight-up at home since 2009, which is five fewer wins than even the worst group of teams we’ve made so much money betting against.
WORST NFL HOME RECORDS SINCE 2009
32. Bucs: 17-40 SU (.298 WP)
31. Titans: 22-36 SU (.379 WP)
30. Raiders: 22-35 SU (.386 WP)
29. Browns: 22-35 SU (.386 WP)
28. Redskins: 22-35 SU (.386 WP)
Tampa Bay was 27th against the pass last year, ranking 32nd against No. 2 WRs and 32nd against ‘Other’ receivers at Football Outsiders. Broncos RB CJ Anderson could be in for a big game as well, after finishing last week’s game with just 37 rushing yards on 14 carries. Denver is 10-3-2 O/U following a game where Anderson rushed for less than 40 yards.
Tampa Bay’s top running back Doug Martin (hamstring) will likely miss this contest but Charles Sims can carry the load. Sims had 55 yards and a major in the loss to Los Angeles and he’s also a nice dump-off option for QB Jameis Winston in the flat.
Winston is going to need to make plays downfield against this No Fly Zone defense if the Bucs look to steal a win and he was solid vs. the Rams, going 36 for 58 (405 PY, 3 TD). Tampa Bay has a huge divisional road game on-deck next Monday at Carolina but it’s not Dirk Koetter’s style to ‘wait and see’.
WEEK 4 PREDICTION
The Broncos D has held each of its opponents this year to less than 200 passing yards and road teams off a road game are 18-8 O/U in this situation the past 10 seasons. The five non-conference games went 5-0 O/U, clearing the total by an average 20 points per game.
Road faves off a road win are also 20-12-1 ATS against non-conference teams, as long as the road team’s next home game is non-divisional. Denver is home to Atlanta next week so there is no fear of a look-ahead here and as noted, the Bucs have the Panthers up next.
When this week’s home team had a divisional game on-deck, the “Over” has cashed 15 of 20 tickets since 1998. If our road team won its previous road game in this set, the over is 8-2 O/U and when our home team is coming off a loss, the total is 9-2 O/U. The total has come down from 44 and a couple books are starting to show a 42.5.