Carson Palmer is back in the lineup tonight facing a Jets team that has averaged 2.4 sacks per game
The Week 6 Monday nighter features a pair of non-conference teams struggling to get back on the right side of .500. Arizona is off a decisive road win over San Francisco so they come into this game with extra rest. New York has lost three-straight since beating Buffalo but the Jets are attracting action with online books. Odds were stable on this game until Monday but as the hours countdown to kickoff we’re seeing several outlets starting to shave the free hook that was available throughout the week.
WEEK 6 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Odds: Cardinals -7.5 and O/U 45.5
Arizona has done a lot things well since Bruce Arians took over, including two wins on Monday Night Football. The Cardinals failed to cover in each of those matchups, however, and the team’s MNF record since 1995 is 3-7 SU, 1-8-1 ATS. Those trends stretch back over a great deal of years so they might seem irrelevant to this game, especially if the line was Cards -2.5 or -3, but the books have hung a seven on this game and Arizona has had a tough time chopping that much wood.
Last year, Week 7, Monday Night Football against Baltimore. Cards (-8.5) outrush the Ravens 150-55 and win 26-18, missing the cover by a half-point. Seven weeks later, the Vikings are in town for a Thursday night game and Arizona opens at -7 but is bet up to -9.5 before the window closes. The Cards carry a 17-10 lead into the fourth and end up winning 23-20 straight-up; another ATS loss.
Arizona was a big fave in all three home games this season, too. They lost straight-up to the Pats in Week 1, blew Tampa Bay out of the water in Week 2 and then lost to the Rams as a 8-point fave in Week 4. The team’s recent record laying between -7 and -14 points at home is 8-6 SU and 2-12 ATS.
New York’s 1-4 record seems disastrous but to be fair, the Jets have faced a very difficult schedule. Bengals, Bills, Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers. Combined record: 17-11 SU. Three of the losses were by double-digits, too, so its forced a big number on tonight’s game. New York has dealt with its fair share of injuries but tonight it looks like center Nick Mangold and corner Darrelle Revis will both try and play through some pain.
PREDICTION
Arians has yet to face the Jets since taking over in 2013 and who knows, maybe someone in the organization has tipped him off to the fact his club has lost five-straight to New York since 1996. Arizona certainly has the talent to win tonight but this isn’t like Week 2, when the Cards were off a loss and Tampa Bay came strutting into town off a big divisional road win over Atlanta. The Jets are hungry and players know how much this game means to HC Todd Bowles. Arizona has Seattle on-deck, creating a small look-ahead factor to consider, and in my opinion the value in this game is on New York with as many points as you can find.