By Greg Dempson
A former Seattle area native returns home tonight as Tim Lincecum gets the call vs. the Mariners in this 10:10 ET start. Lincecum has been brutal in his 8 starts since joining the Angels rotation allowing 10 home runs in 35 innings. He’s also allowed 59 hits in those 35 innings as well as 21 walks with a WHIP of 2.257, ERA of 8.49 and in his last 3 starts he has a bloated ERA of 11.92.
Opposing batters are hitting .381 against him. Lincecum is 1–1 with a 5.91 ERA in two starts vs. Seattle and struggled to retire Chris Iannetta, 7 for 18, as well as allowing 3 home runs to Seth Smith who has gone 12 for 47 against him.
The Mariners start Felix Hernandez tonight and he is not the Felix of old either as he has struggled as well since returning from injury. Overall this season Hernandez he is 5–4 with an ERA of 5.46, WHIP of 1.641.
His fastball in now in the middle to low 90’s and he’s lasted only once past the 7th inning in his last 8 starts. When starting vs. the Angels this season he is 0–2, allowing 6 earned runs in 14.3 innings on 12 hits, two of which were homers while walking 4 and striking out 13.
· My last Every Edge selection on the Athletics in the first 5 innings lost. My Every Edge record is 29–14–01.
Around the Diamonds
· Seattle is 33–19 as a favorite of –110 or higher this season.
· Lincecum is +18-units to the over in road games in his career.
· In the second half of the season the Mariners are 22–11 to the over and +10.80-units when playing against a team with a losing record in the last two seasons.
· The Angels are +21.50-units on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 runs.
· In the second half of the season the past two seasons Hernandez is 7 – 0 to the over when playing against a team with a losing record in the last two seasons.
· The Angels are 48–30 to the over and +16.40-units in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better the last three seasons.
· In the second half of the season the past two seasons, Seattle is 10–01 to the over in home games vs. teams averaging 0.9 or less home runs per game.
· Since it is the start of a new series the home plate umpire is unknown as of this posting.
Angels vs Mariners Pick
I have an opinion only on the Angels and Mariners sailing over the total of 8.5 runs at –120.