Baseball Pick – Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals

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Pinnacle Odds: Washington Nationals +110 at St. Louis Cardinals -119 Total 9

by Greg Dempson

Right hander Tanner Roark gets the start tonight for the Nationals, Roark has an ERA of 12.51 in his last three starts through 13.7 innings allowing 19 earned runs on 24 hits, (3 homers,) while walking 6 vs. 12 strikeouts with a WHIP of 2.195. In seven road starts this season Roark has an ERA of 4.95, WHIP of 1.495 through 40 combined innings while allowing 39 hits. Roark is 1-1 when starting vs. the Cardinals with an ERA of 6.30 and a WHIP of 1.700. He faced St. Louis on April 10 this season allowing 5 runs, (3 earned,) through 5 innings in a 14-06 Nationals blow-out win.
The Cardinals send Mike Leake to the mound, in his last three starts his ERA is 5.00, WHIP of 1.333 through 18 combined innings while allowing 10 earned runs. At home Leake’s ERA is 3.44 on the season, WHIP of 1.233. He has been hit hard in his last two home starts allowing 9 earned runs in 12 innings. Lifetime vs. the Nationals Leake 4-5 with an ERA of 4.37 and a WHIP of 1.286 with 12 starts and the over cashing at 8-3-1.

“Getting Totalled”

· Roark is 5-1-1 to the OVER in his seven road starts this season.
· The Cardinals are 36-23 to the OVER and +10.90-units against right-handed starters this season.
· The Nationals are 28-15 to the OVER and +11.30-units in night games this season.
· St. Louis is 23-13 to the OVER when the money line is + or -125 this season.
· Washington is averaging 5.7 RPG away from home and 6.0 RPG vs. righties this season.
· The Cardinals are 26-16 to the OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.

An Uppity System

· When the O/U is between 8.5 to 10 runs, play National League teams with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season to sail over the total when playing against an opponent that’s starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last two starts. This system is 43-17 = 72% to the over the past five seasons. in Review

· My Every Edge record for this season is 7-9-1 and -1.760-units.
· There is a good possibility of a rain delay in this game so there is no way I would back the Nationals on the M/L as their bullpen is horrific 5.64, WHIP of 1.557 when away from home. If there is a lengthy rain delay, the starters will be gone and I still like the over as the Cardinals bullpen isn’t that solid either as their home ERA is 4.19, WHIP of 1.396.

Baseball Pick 

My official Every Edge selection is for the Nationals/Cardinals to sail over 9 runs at -105.

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