Baseball Picks: Twins at Mariners

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Seattle is back from a 10-game road trip Friday and riding a six-game losing streak. They are only 3-6 in nine home games but Minnesota comes in sporting a 3-10 road record and the lowest run production in baseball


Seattle is hitting .245 at home this season and .270 against Pavano all-time


“Start off fast and fade away real slow” would be a great theme for the Mariners first trip against eastern teams in 2012. Seattle opened with a three-game sweep at Detroit followed by a 9-5 win over the Toronto Blue Jays, the first time they’d won four consecutive road games since May 20-23, 2011.


After that, the fall-off in Seattle’s hitting was remarkable. A shutout to Brandon Morrow, back-to-back two-run efforts in Toronto and Tampa Bay followed by a combined eight runs in the final three games at Tropicana.


The Mariners are currently 21st in league scoring at 3.78 runs per game (RPG) and at home, they average just 3.22 RPG.


Cue the Minnesota Twins.


Minny was swept in Los Angeles and have not won a road game since beating Tampa Bay 5-4 on April 20. During the five-game skid the Twins are scoring 1.2 RPG and their season road average is 2.92 RPG.


Starting pitchers tonight are Carl Pavano (1-2, 4.91) against Jason Vargas (3-2, 3.38) and baseball odds favor the home side at -135 with a total of 7 Under (-116).


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Minnesota has 6 overs and 7 unders on the road this season but they are hitting just .207. The runs rarely come from the Twin side of the ledger and both of Pavano’s two road starts stayed under the number.


Seattle is hovering just around the .500 mark for Over/Under at home and away but 12 home games against the Twins since 2010 resulted in 3 overs, 8 unders and a push.



Pavano is 1-2 lifetime against Seattle with a 3.97 ERA and he’s allowed six longballs. In 33 innings of work this year, the right-hander has given up six more home runs and this M’s lineup has some pop but for Jesus Montero and Michael Saunders, Seattle’s two home run leaders, this will be their first time facing Pavano. The Twins lineup is not threatening against any pitcher and until either of these teams shows some life, there is only one way to play this game.

Pick: Take the Under


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