By Greg Dempson
With last night’s +133 money line dog winner on the Red Sox my record improves to 23–09–01 with these Every Edge selections.
In this 7:05 ET start, Great American Ball Park hasn’t been great for the home team, (19–25,) plus the Brewers have not been great away from home this season, but, there is one exception that favors Milwaukee in tonight’s contest, they face a leftie.
The Brewers highest run average per game this season is against lefties as they average 4.6 RPG and they’re above .500 as a result of that with a record of 15–12 vs. a record of 23–38 against righties.
Milwaukee starts Jimmy Nelson this evening and I note Nelson/Team are 3–5 in his eight road games and he has an ERA of 5.27 and perhaps one saving grace might be his ability to keep the long ball in the park as he’s allowed only 4 home runs away from home in 41 innings averaging 5.1 innings pitched per start. Nelson has fared much better in his last three starts with an ERA of 2.12 through 17 innings.
Normally I would first consider the first 5 innings however the Brewers possess a far better bullpen than Cincinnati. Milwaukee’s bullpen road ERA is 3.38 vs. a home bullpen ERA of 5.95 for the Reds.
- · Reds starter John Lamb/Team is 1–6 in seven home starts and during his most recent three starts his ERA is 7.05 through 15.3 innings while allowing 4 homers with the team going 0–3.
· Lamb is 1–10 against the money line vs. National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs per game the last two seasons.
· Lamb is 1–11 against the money line vs. an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse the past two seasons.
· This season the Brewers are 20–14 and +7.10-units against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
· The Reds are 6–26 vs. the money line vs. a starter that gives up 5.5 or less hits per start this season.
· Nelson/Team is 4–3 vs. Cincinnati in his seven starts while Lamb/Team is 0–4 in his four starts with Lamb’s ERA at 6.98.
Brewers vs Reds Pick
My Saturday evening Everyedge selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers at +103 on the money line.