CFL Pick: Offense Blows

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cfl alouettes tiger cats

By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: Hamilton Tiger-Cats +1 vs Montreal Alouettes -1 Total 47

In their last game at home vs. Ottawa, Montreal allowed a staggering 535 yards. In Hamilton’s lone road game this season they scored 42 points while producing 356 yards on offense.

Hamilton’s three posted totals this season closed at 52, 50.5 and 52.5 so on the surface it would appear that 49.5 would be an easy over? To quote Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friends!”

Montreal’s totals in their two games closed at 48.5 and 53.5 with both contests staying well below the totals with 36 and 41 combined points. Numerous angles plus two solid systems suggest you might want to consider the under in this game.

Under Achieving

· These two teams have strong tendencies to staying under the total. Since 1996, at either site, they are a combined 26–40 = 60.6% to the under.

· In the past three seasons the two teams are 2–4 = 66.7% to the under as well as 13–22 = 63% to the UNDER at Montreal since 1996.

· Only one of the last five games had a final score than exceeded 49 points.

· Since 1996 Hamilton is 24–51 to the UNDER and +24.60-units in the first month of the season.

· Montreal is 0–6 to the under in the first month of the season the past two years.

· Montreal is 02–11 to the under = 84.6% when installed as an underdog the past two seasons. (The Alouettes are currently +1 as of this posting.)

· Hamilton is 04–12 to the UNDER as a favorite the past two seasons plus the Ti–Cats are 06–17 to the UNDER the past two seasons when off a non conference game.

· Montreal is 13–27 to the UNDER in all games the past three seasons averaging a combined 44 PPG.

· When a team committed 3 or more turnovers in back-to-back games, (Hamilton,) and they’re on the road and the O/U is between 49.5 to 56 points, play the game under the total. This system is 27–63 = 70% to the UNDER since 1996 as well as 0–7 to the UNDER the past three seasons. The average posted total in this system is 52 vs. an average combined score of just under 47 PPG.

CFL Pick

I’m not a big fan of playing an under in the CFL but the above situations certainly warrant considering the under.


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