By Greg Dempson
Pinnacle Odds: San Diego Chargers +3.5 at Oakland Raiders -3.5 Totals 48.5
One of the situations I review when betting an over or an under is a teams’ offense efficiency, (yards per point) for an over or lack thereof when considering an under wager. If two teams are poor offensive yards per point performers and it takes said teams longer to “find” the end zone, I won’t consider an over wager. The lower the number on offense the greater the team is at moving the ball while the opposite is true when factoring in defensive yards per point.
So, who is the number one team in yards per points in offense efficiency after playing four games? The answer is the San Diego Chargers with a number of 11.9 YPP. (The Packers are ranked #1 but they’ve only played three games.) San Diego is led by Phillip Rivers and the Chargers at 1–3 could easily be 4–0 if not for late game meltdowns. Three of their four games have sailed over the total and Rivers has taken care of the ball well tossing 7 touchdowns vs. 1 interception and in their last three contests their YPP number is even better at 11.2. Rivers has thrown for 1,110 yards for an average of 277.5 passing yards per game.
The Raiders are ranked #13 in YPP with a number of 14.5. Derek Carr has also been efficient with his touchdown passes vs. interceptions ratio as he’s thrown 9 touchdown passes vs. 1 interception. Carr has passed for 1,066 yards for an average of 266.5 per game.
Oakland’s YPP number in their last game was 9.3 while San Diego’s number was 10.2.
How many plays per game a team runs also merits consideration, do they huddle up when on offense or do they go with a hurry up style of approach? Does a team run the ball or pass the ball more? Are both the teams terrible on special teams play? A shorter staring point on offense means less yards traveled on offense to score. Oakland is ranked #16 on special teams while the Chargers are #25.
In Review
· Last week’s selection was a winner on the under at 45 in the Dallas/San Francisco game, (21–17.) My Every Edge record is 3–1 in the regular season as well as 3–0 in the preseason for an overall record of 6–1.
Over Achievers
· The Raiders are allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt, and in this scenario when the Chargers are matched up vs. a foe that’s inept in this department, San Diego is 25–09 to the over.
· San Diego is 29–10 over the total when playing vs. defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play.
· The Raiders are 8–1 to the over when off a upset win as an underdog.
· Oakland is 11–03 to the over after playing their last game on the road.
· Phillip Rivers is 18–11 to the over when facing a passing defense that allows 5.8 to 7.8 passing yards per attempt.
· Derek Carr is 11–04 in his career when playing at home.
All Systems Go
· Play home teams that are out gained by 40 or more passing yards per game to sail over the total after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in their last game. This system is 51–24 = 68% to the over the past decade.
Chargers at Raiders Pick
My Everyedge week 5 NFL selection is on the Chargers and Raiders to sail over 48.5 points.