Pinnacle Odds: Arkansas +8.5 at South Carolina -8.5 Total 145.5
By Greg Dempson
Will the Gamecocks be on their game tonight vs. the Arkansas Razorbacks? Last season South Carolina was sitting at 21–3 before a late season collapse whereby they went 3–5 which resulted in them not participating in the big dance so their focus tonight shouldn’t be a problem, but, can they cover the number? I have a power rating of –10.5 for this contest so at –8.5 as of this posting is within my guidelines.
The Gamecocks were able to bounce back off a triple overtime loss to Alabama by defeating Mississippi State on the road on February 11th. South Carolina is allowing an average of 61.9 PPG at home while the Razorbacks are allowing 7.2 PPG on the road. The difference maker tonight should be guard Sindarius Thornwell who averages 19.8 PPG. Last year the Gamecocks won 76–61 at Arkansas and I expect another solid effort for them this season.
Angles
- Arkansas is 02–10 ATS in road games versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8+ points per game.
- South Carolina is 16-5 ATS versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ points per game.
- The Razorbacks are 1–8 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of 80% or greater.
- The Gamecocks are 17–07 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 the last two seasons.
A system that’s has “Game”
- Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, in a contest involving two good teams winning between 60% to 80% of their games. This system is 66–34 = 66% ATS.
Every Edge in Review
- My Every Edge College record is 1–4 ATS
College Basketball Pick
Let’s try and get the ship back on course with my EE selection on the South Carolina Gamecocks at – 8.5 points.