By Greg Dempson
Utah State vs San Diego State +5
Last week Utah State absolutely demolished the Boise State Broncos, (52–26,) tallying 15 first downs vs. 20 for the Broncos. Boise State turned the ball over 8 times including 7 the first half with those 7 take-a-ways resulting in 35 Aggies points. The Broncos were also without their top running back Jeremy McNichols. Without him Boise State rushed for only 34 yards and they could never get their rushing attack going as they were playing catch-up due to all those turnovers.
Utah State’s quarterback, Kent Myers hasn’t seen the likes of an unorthodox defense that Rocky Long will show them. San Diego State’s quarterback, Smith has now played five games without throwing an interception. The Aztecs are –103 YPG vs. Non Conference teams but they’re +233 in Mountain West games. Each team has an exceptional defense, the Aztecs are ranked #14 while the Aggies are #20 and I note San Diego State is 8–20 to the under in their last 28 contests.
View From the 50 yard Line
· San Diego State is 10–01 straight up in this series.
· Aztecs head coach Long is 8–3 ATS when playing an opponent that’s off a straight up dog win.
· San Diego State is 23–09–01 ATS in their last 33 Conference games.
· Coach Long is also 21–09–01 ATS at home and playing against a foe with a better record.
· Play against a road team, (Utah State,) after an straight up underdog of +6 or more points win vs. a conference rival and now playing against an opponent, SD State,) off a straight up win by 10 or more points vs. a conference rival. This system is 33 – 07 = 82.5% ATS the past 10 seasons.
· Play on underdogs of +3.5 to +10 points with a good rushing defense, (allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards per carry,) after outrushing their opponents by 100 or more yards in three straight games. This system is 33–11 = 75% ATS when backing San Diego State.
College Football Pick
My EveryEdge Game of the Week is on the San Diego State Aztecs getting +5 points.
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