College Football Picks – Air Force vs San Jose State

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By Greg Dempson

Air Force –6 at home vs. San Jose State, (game #366 at 10:15 ET)

The last time San Jose State traveled to Colorado Springs to take on the Falcons, each team played in the WAC Conference. That last meeting was August 31, 1996, so it has been almost 20 years since these two teams met. In case you’re wondering, in that contest, the Falcons laying –22 points, whitewashed the Spartans 45–00.

San Jose has had two extra days to prepare for the option offense that Air Force runs but I don’t believe those extra couple of days will help the Spartans based on how they have fared vs. a very similar option attack when they played Navy the past two seasons.

When facing the Midshipmen in 2014 and 2013, the Spartans allowed 41 and 52 points losing both times ATS. In their 2013 meeting San Jose State was –1 at home vs. Navy and they lost in overtime, 58–52. Last season, when getting +8.5 points at Navy, the Spartans were defeated 41–31 as Navy amassed 423 yards rushing.

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Each team comes off impressive wins vs. FCS schools last week. Of the two FCS opponents most certainly San Jose State faced the tougher opponent in New Hampshire, winning 43–14 and totaling more than 700 yards on offense. I cannot over react to that blowout win though as the Spartans lost six players on defense and I note they allowed 5.4 yards per carry last season which resulted in an average of 239 rushing yards per game.

Last week the Falcons crushed Morgan State by a score of 63–07. The falcons also have holes to fill on offense as well as defense as they’ve lost 12 starters but they do return quarterback Nate Romine who rushing for 119 yards last week. The Falcons had 394 rushing yards with 15 different players carrying the ball in last week’s win.

View From the 50 Yard Line – College Football Picks

  • San Jose State has lost 12 straight road openers gong 4 – 8 ATS.
  • The Falcons were 5–1 ATS at home last year winning straight up as dogs vs. Boise State (+13,) Colorado State, (+7.5) while also defeating Navy, (+3.)
  • “The Mountain’s High and the Valley is Low,” and I like the fact that San Jose plays at sea level, (altitude of 49 feet,) while Air Force plays with a rarified air home field advantage as the altitude at Colorado Springs is 6,035 feet.
  • Neither team has a look-a-head contest next week as the Spartans host the Oregon State Beavers while Air Force travels to Michigan State to play a much tougher Spartans team, (where they will be 3 touchdown underdogs,) and perhaps more, if Michigan State put a beat down on the Oregon Ducks. It’s my belief that the Falcons will be more focused on their game two weeks from now when they play academy rival, Navy on the road.
  • After holding an opponent to single digits in their last game, (applies to the Falcons with a 63–07 victory last week,) play on home favorites of –3.5 to –10.5 points when playing against an opponent that scored 24 or more first half points in their last game. This system is 78–39 = 67% ATS since 1992 with an average line of –6.7 PPG vs. an average win by 10.8 PPG

My College selection is on Air Force –6 points.

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