College Football Picks: Louisville at Florida State

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Florida State Seminoles

By Greg Dempson

Louisville Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles –7.5

The last time Louisville defeated FSU on the road was way back in 1952 and a youngster by the name of Johnny Unitas was under center. In their most recent contest, the Cardinals lead Florida State 21–00 only to fall by a final score of 42–31 when hosting the “Noles” on October 30, 2014.

The Cardinals enter this contest off a bye week and they’ve certainly played well enough to actually be 5–0 rather than 3–2 straight up. I like the Cardinals for the possible upset in this early start as I note Florida State has had issues on defense the past two weeks allowing 783 yards and 46 first downs in their wins over Miami and Wake Forest.

Louisville’s three losses were decided by a combined 13 points and all three of those losses were to teams that are or were ranked, Auburn, Clemson and Houston.

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View From the 50 Yard Line

– Florida State is 5–15 ATS their last 20 games while winning 10 straight games decided by 7 or less points.

– Louisville’s 11–00 ATS as an away dog the last four years with eight outright upsets.

– The last two seasons the Seminoles are 1–10 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game.

– The Cardinals are 20–05 ATS, (on the road,) when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.

– Head coach Fisher is 13–24 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up wins.

– Florida State is 5–14 ATS in all games the last two seasons.

– Louisville is 18–5 ATS in road games when off two or more consecutive unders since 1992

– Petrino is 46–26 ATS after one or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992.

– Play against all favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a good rushing defense, (allowing 125 or less rushing yards per game,) after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in their last game. This system is 42–16 ATS = 72% when fading the Seminoles.

College Football Picks:

My EveryEdge Game of the Week is on the Louisville Cardinals at +7.5 points.

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