By Greg Dempson
In the 1980’s this game would have been the marquee match-up of the weekend, there was “the catch” by tight end Dwight Clark in a playoff home dog victory back in the 1980’s and the 49ers were indeed juggernauts for more than a decade behind the leadership of Joe Montana and Steve Young.
Dallas shone in the early 1980’s and once again in the 1990’s with Aikman as their quarterback and they managed to win a couple of Super Bowls…. but, both teams have fallen on hard times of late. Playoffs for either team are as rare as Rex Ryan not putting his foot in his mouth.
After opening with a shutout home win, (28–00,) when hosting the Rams, San Francisco returns home off horrific back-to-back away games as they were blown-out, losing (46–27,) at Carolina and followed that loss up with a (37–18,) defeat at Seattle last week.
Dallas will most likely be without Dez Bryant in this contest and will be relying on quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott. Prescott has been very efficient as he has yet to toss an interception.
Left tackle Tyron Smith returns for the Cowboys and that’s important as he’ll be matched up vs. outside linebacker Ahmad Brooks. With Smith returning to the line-up that is definitely a plus as Dallas will be without offensive lineman La’el Collins. Not only can Elliott run efficiently, (274 yards and two touchdowns,) he is also impressing as a blocker.
Dallas doesn’t have a look-a-head division game, but they play the Bengals next, (playoffs last season,) before facing two quality teams after Cincinnati, playing at Green Bay and then hosting the undefeated Eagles. It is my belief that Dallas will try and run some clock throught this game and leave injury free while keeping Chip Kelly’s offense on the sidelines.
- Last week’s selection lost, my Every Edge record is now 2–1 ATS through the first three weeks of the regular season as well as 3–0 ATS in the season.
- The 49ers are 0–8 to the under at home vs. good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play.
- Dallas has a storied history of playing under, going 58–83 vs. teams that have a straight up losing record.
- San Francisco is 1–9 to the under after two consecutive losses by 14 or more points.
- The 49ers are also 05–17 to the under when home and off back-to-back games whereby 50 or more total points were scored.
- In 19 starts, Blaine Gabbert is 05–14 to the under at home.
- Since moving from Candlestick Park, the 49ers are 03–20 to the under at Levi Stadium.
94% Super System
- As mentioned at the start of this report, the 49ers have allowed 35 or more points in back-to-back games and are now a home dog with an O/U that’s between 42.5 to 49.5 points. Since 1997, when you bet this game UNDER the total you are 01–17–01 = 94% to the under including 00–11 to the under when the O/U is between 42.5 to 46 points as well as 00–14 to the UNDER in all non division games.
Cowboys at 49ers Pick
My Every Edge selection for week 4 in the NFL is a recommendation on the Cowboys and 49ers to stay under 45 points.
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