Dolphins at Chargers Free Pick – Back to the Future

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By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: Miami +4 at San Diego -4 Total 48.5

So, what happened on September the 29th? That was the last time the Dolphins played a road game! In a definite scheduling quirk, Miami has not only played four home games since the 29th of September, but they’ve also had a bye week. The biggest improvement to Miami’s offense came due to the retirement of Adrian Foster.

That opened the door for Jay Ajayi as he has rushed for 529 yards in the Dolphins’ last three games, a stretch that saw him become just the fourth player in NFL history to post back-to-back 200-yard outings. He’s sixth in the NFL with 646 rushing yards while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. When you can run the ball efficiently that aids the passing game and it comes as no surprise that Miami has been able to score 30 vs. the Steelers, 28 vs. the Bills and 27 against the Jets with all three contests sailing over the total.

Chargers running back Melvin Gordon is no slouch when carrying the ball either as he’s coming off the game of his career by rushing for 196 yards against the Tennessee Titans. Gordon is third in the NFL with 768 rushing yards and he also leads the league with 11 touchdowns, 9 rushing and 2 receiving. This should bode well for the Chargers as the Dolphins are ranked 30th in defending the run, allowing an average of 136.1 yards per game.

Quarterback Rivers has also benefited from a solid ground game as he has tossed 17 touchdowns vs. 7 interceptions for 2,560 yards.

In Review

  • Last week’s selection lost, my NFL Every Edge record is 8–4 ATS.

Moving On Up

  • Rivers is 7–2 to the over this season with San Diego averaging 29.8 PPG while the team is allowing an average of 27.4 PPG for a combined score of 57.2 points per game.
  • The two teams are a combined 10–02 to the over this season when playing on a grass surface.
  • Tannehill is 5–3 to the over while Rivers is 7–2 over the total this season.
  • The Chargers are averaging 34 PPG at home this season while allowing an average of 24.2 PPG.
  • Miami has averaged 23.7 PPG in Tannehill’s three games vs. the Chargers.
  • Rivers has averaged 28.0 PPG at home vs. the Dolphins.
  • Miami and San Diego are a combined 6–0 to the over in their last three games, (3–0 each.)

Dolphins at Chargers Pick 

My NFL Every Edge selection for this week is to take the Miami Dolphins and San Diego Chargers over the total of 48 or 48.5 points.


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