If the annual ‘first round’ of football betting is Super Bowl futures, online sportsbooks rang the bell on Round 2 this week with the release of NFL Season Win Totals for 2012. We have a list of all the odds and three predictions to track through the off-season
Early Season Win Total picks look at the St. Louis Rams, Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens along with opening odds for the rest of the league
Much like the 2011 off-season, this has already been a memorable spring for NFL betting but for a host of different reasons:
– Tim Tebow’s move to New York in conjunction with the Broncos signing of Peyton Manning
– The infamous Bounty-gate scandal and the fallout between New Orleans Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma and Commissioner Roger Goodell that is still making headlines today
And of course the much anticipated NFL Draft that had an impact on Week 1 NFL odds even before the Indianapolis Colts officially selected QB Andrew Luck as their first overall pick.
We covered the opening lines for the 2012 season in NFL Picks, Early Odds for Week 1 and this week, online sportsbooks have released Season Win Totals (SWT) for all 32 teams giving bettors something else to kick around during OTA’s.
If it’s too early for NFL betting, we understand. But tracking these numbers from Day 1 can give you a good idea of where the money is moving before training camp and perhaps help with any decisions around line value when September hits.
First, let’s look at three plays we are backing at the opening price.
TENNESSEE TITANS OVER 7 WINS (-130)
Last season it was noted that Tennessee has the youngest starting group of defenders in the league at 25 years and 189 days (average). Tennessee still had the fourth-rated opponent’s yard per point (17.9) but they gave up too many big plays and had trouble stopping teams on 3rd down (23rd). Look for big improvements in those categories this season.
QBs Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker will also have a better grasp of HC Mike Munchak’s system and a full training camp devoid of contract issues for RB Chris Johnson can only help.
ST. LOUIS RAMS OVER 6 WINS (-110)
The Rams were a mess in 2011 but they also lost nearly as many starter games as the Green Bay Packers in 2010. St. Louis probably had just as many injuries but it’s hard to qualify anyone in that secondary a “starter” after they make two backup appearances, start one game and then suffer a season-ending injury, which was pretty much the case all season.
HC Jeff Fisher can design playbooks around his skill players but we’ll see how the connection between QB Sam Bradford and 2nd round pick WR Brian Quick pan out. Apparently at the mini-camp earlier this month it looked good and the height advantage works in their favor. A healthy RB Steven Jackson would be a bonus but that’s hard to count on.
The Rams’ SWT in 2011 was 7.5 wins and they missed it by a longshot, going 2-14 SU. With Fisher in place we thought the books might post a similar number in 2012, perhaps a 6.5 or 7, but this line came in a little low with just 10-cent juice to the “Over”.
AFC games will be against the East, NFC West games will be tough and 3-3 is a best-case scenario. The NFC rotational opponents are Detroit, Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota and bottom feeder matchups will be against Washington and Tampa.
St. Louis will be hard pressed to go .500 but getting seven wins seems realistic.
BALTIMORE RAVENS OVER 10 WINS (-110)
Nine-year NFL vet Dean Pees takes over as the Ravens D-Co in place of Chuck Pagano (Colts). Pees was the D-Co in New England for four seasons (2006-09) and spent the past two guiding the Ravens linebacker corps. The Ravens also announced O-Co Cam Cameron will stay put and he’ll be looking to notch a fifth-straight playoff appearance. Baltimore is 44-20 SU during Cameron’s tenure and QB Joe Flacco continues to improve each season.
The Ravens have the AFC West, NFC East and playoff rematches against both New England and Houston. Nothing will come easy for this team but look for them to challenge Pittsburgh for the AFC North title with a win-count in the double-digits.
2012 NFL SEASON WIN TOTALS
Green Bay Packers, Over 12 wins -125
New England Patriots, Over 12 wins -120
Houston Texans, Over 10 wins -140
Philadelphia Eagles, Over 10 wins -135
New Orleans Saints, Over 10 wins -125
Pittsburgh Steelers, Over 10 wins -125
Baltimore Ravens, Under 10 wins -120
San Francisco 49ers, Under 10 wins -135
Denver Broncos, Under 9.5 wins -120
New York Giants, Under 9.5 wins -120
Detroit Lions, Under 9.5 wins -135
San Diego Chargers, Over 9 wins -130
Atlanta Falcons, Under 9 wins -135
Chicago Bears, Over 8.5 wins -135
Dallas Cowboys, Over 8.5 wins -125
New York Jets, Over 8.5 wins -115
Kansas City Chiefs, Over 8 wins -120
Cincinnati Bengals, Over 7.5 wins -130
Carolina Panthers, Over 7.5 wins -115
Miami Dolphins, Under 7.5 wins -120
Tennessee Titans, Over 7 wins -130
Buffalo Bills, Under 7 wins -120
Seattle Seahawks, Under 7 wins -120
Oakland Raiders, Under 7 wins -120
Arizona Cardinals, Under 7 wins -120
Washington Redskins, Under 6.5 wins -130
St. Louis Rams, Under 6 wins -120
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Under 6 wins -120
Minnesota Vikings, Under 6 wins -130
Cleveland Browns, Under 5.5 wins -130
Indianapolis Colts, Under 5.5 wins -135
Jacksonville Jaguars, Under 5.5 wins -135
Pinnacle Sports has NFL odds for Super Bowl XLVII along with AFC and NFC Futures!