Florida at Tennessee Pick – Are the Gators Back?

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By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: Florida Gators +7 at Tennessee Volunteers -7 Total 43

The 3–0 Florida Gators travel to Neyland Stadium in this 3:30 Eastern Time start, (Game #383,) to face the 3–0 Volunteers. The last time each team was ranked in the top 20 was back in 2006 and the Gators won on the road 21–20.

Tennessee has not impressed me with their three victories as they needed overtime in week 1 while hosting Appalachian State, (20–13,) and followed that contest up with a (45–24,) neutral site victory vs. Virginia Tech, (5 fumble recoveries.) Last week they squeaked by Ohio U, (28–19) as 27.5 home favorites.

The Gators are also 3–0 this season but two of their three wins have come vs. rent-a-victims, (24–07,) against UMASS, (45–07) against Kentucky and last weekend (32–00) vs. North Texas with all three being home contests.

The Mash Unit

· The Gators will be without their starting quarterback, Luke Del Rio, who suffered a knee sprain. Purdue Boilermakers transfer Austin Appleby, who started 11 games and passed for 332 yards in his final start at Purdue, gets the start in place of Del Rio. Appleby has played in large venues as a BIG–10 starter so a crowd of 100 thousand plus shouldn’t be too big a stage for him! Appleby made 11 starts in 17 games in his three years with the Boilermakers.

· Special teams won’t be special for the Vols in this one as they will be without star cornerback and special teams star Cameron Sutton who suffered a broken ankle. Another special teams’ performer, redshirt freshman Quart’e Sapp, is also out for the season with a knee injury.

In Review

· Last week’s selection on Michigan State at +7.5 was an outright winner, (36–28.) My Every Edge College record is 2–1 ATS this season and when including 2015, I’m on a nice run of 13–04 ATS.

Awesome Angles

· After three weeks of play Tennessee’s offense is ranked #101 nationally averaging only 351 yards per game.

· Florida has held their first three opponents to an average of less than 130 yards a game in total offense.

· Since 1992 the Volunteers are 03–19 ATS and -17.90-units in home games versus excellent defensive teams that allow 285 or less yards per game.

· The Gators have won 11 straight games against the Volunteers.

· Tennessee is 01–12 ATS and -12.20-units in home games vs. excellent passing defenses that allow 5.25 or less passing yards per attempt.

· Florida is 39–18 ATS and +19.20-units after a two game home stand.

All Systems Go

· In the first month of the season, play against all favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive straight up wins after closing out last season strong with four or more wins in their last five games. This system is 34–11 = 76% ATS the past five seasons.

· Play on road underdogs that average 400 or more total yards per game, after outgaining an opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. This system is 70–31 = 69% ATS the past five seasons.

Florida at Tennessee Pick

My Every Edge week 4 College selection is on the Florida Gators at +7. (My juice was –110 when I bet this game it is now –124 to grab +7.)


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