NFL Week 10 Info

icepack6969

icepack6969

Well-known member
Betting Recap - Week 9
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 9 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 6-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-2
Against the Spread 12-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-4

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 82-47-1
Against the Spread 56-72-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 67-62-1
Against the Spread 55-73-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 64-65-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Chiefs (+5.5, ML +200) vs. Vikings, 26-23
Broncos (+4, ML +175) vs. Browns, 24-19
Chargers (+4, ML +180) vs. Packers, 26-11
Dolphins (+3.5, ML +165) vs. Jets, 26-18
Ravens (+3, ML +140) vs. Patriots, 37-20

The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-10.5) vs. Redskins, 24-9
Eagles (-5) vs. Bears, 22-14
Seahawks (-4) vs. Buccaneers, 40-34 (OT)
Panthers (-3.5) vs. Titans, 30-20

Brown Out

-- The Cleveland Browns (-4) entered the season with a ton of hype, centering around the addition of WR Odell Beckham, while QB Baker Mayfield is frequently seen on commercials, while taking on critics at every turn. There is a lot of attention surrounding the Browns, and a lot of noise, but very few wins on the actualy playing field. The Denver Broncos turned to QB Brandon Allen for his first NFL start with QB Joe Flacco reportedly dealing with a neck injury which will keep him out four to six weeks. It looked like a stroke of luck for a Cleveland team desperately in need of some noise on the field. They didn't get it. It was more of the same...silly penalties and a lack of results in the red zone. Hey, at least they didn't turn the ball over, and won that battle 1-0.

Anyway, the Browns have now dropped four in a row, and they're 0-4 ATS during the span since opening 2-2 SU/ATS. The defense hasn't been up to snuff, allowing 20 or more points in six straight games, and 24 or more in each of the past five. They're now 0-3 SU/ATS on the road, posting just 11.7 PPG and 27.3 PPG allowed during that three-game span on the road.

London Falling

-- The Houston Texans (+1) made their first-ever trip to London in Week 9. They might ask the NFL to make the trip more often, as they throttled the Jacksonville Jaguars by a 26-3 victory at Wembley Stadium, moving to 6-3 SU overall, including 2-0 SU against the Jags. No DE J.J. Watt? No problem. The Texans have posted 23 or more points in each of their past five games, but they snapped a two-game mini-skid against the number. The Jags saw their record slip to 4-5 SU, but they're still a solid 5-3 ATS across the past eight games.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Detroit Lions-Oakland Raiders (51.5), and while things settled down a bit in the third quarter, both QBs Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr were tossing the pill around early and often. Both teams were poor against the pass coming in, and it showed frequently during the game. The second-highest total on the board was also a high-scoring affair.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Seattle Seahawks (51) battle was a seesaw affair with plenty of offense. There were more than 11 points in each quarter, and the game was tied 34-34 before heading to overtime where Seattle ended up with the win.

The other game with a closing total at or over 50 was the Green Bay Packers-Los Angeles Chargers (50) game, which closed at exactly 50. The Pack offense never got on track, at least until a late, meaningless touchdown in the fourth quarter, as the Chargers defense finally showed up.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Washington Redskins-Buffalo Bills (37) game. Buffalo's offense did their part, posting 24 points, but the defense held the 'Skins and rookie QB Dwayne Haskins to just nine points in his first NFL start. The Redskins have totaled nine or fewer points in five of the past six games, averaging 7.5 PPG. Needless to say, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 for the 'Skins during that span.

The Cleveland Browns-Denver Broncos (39) game was the second-lowest on the big board, mainly due to the presence of Allen under center, and Denver's re-emerging defense. They scored 24, and the total inched over the mark with a late Cleveland touchdown. The only other game with a total under 40 was Indianapolis Colts-Pittsburgh Steelers (39.5). The Colts lost QB Jacoby Brissett early in the game to a knee injury, but veteran backup QB Brian Hoyer more than held his own, tossing three touchdowns. The Colts fell 26-24, but the game went well 'over'.

-- The 'over' hit in the first two primetime games of Week 9, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Dallas Cowboys-New York Giants (48) stiil to be played. The 'over' is just 8-19 (29.6%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.
 
Injury Report

-- Colts QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) is likely to be sidelined for some game time due to what is believed to be a sprained medial collateral ligament.

-- Vikings WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) aggravated his hamstring injury and was forced back to the sldelines.

Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles

-- The Chargers and Raiders square off on Thursday night in what is expected to be the final primetime game at 'The Black Hole' before they move to Las Vegas. The Bolts are 4-0 ATS in their past four appearances on Thursday, and they're 9-2-1 ATS in the past 12 games on the road while going 8-1 ATS in the past nine in the month of November. That includes their 26-11 win over the Packers in Week 9. The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their past seven at home, however, including their Week 9 win against the Lions. The Bolts might be sad to see the Raiders leaving Oakland, as they're 4-0 ATS in their past four trips to the East Bay.

-- The Ravens are coming off an emotional win against the previously unbeaten Patriots, now they have to face the winless Bengals. Will there be a dropoff in intensity and focus? The Bengals are starting QB Ryan Finley, using the bye week to prep him for his first NFL start. The Ravens are 0-7 ATS in their past seven inside the division, and 0-6 ATS in the past six against losing teams. While the Bengals are 1-8 ATS in their past nine home games, they have covered eight of the past 11 against divisional foes. Baltimore hasn't covered in four straight meetings, and they're 4-10 ATS in the past 14 trips to Paul Brown Stadium. Of course, the Bengals haven't been this bad before.

-- The Lions and Bears square off in Chicago in a tale of two teams. The Lions are a pass-happy offense which cannot stop anyone defensively. The Bears are a defensive-minded side who cannot pass against anyone. Some might find it curious then that the Bears opened as three-point favorites. well, Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and 3-1-1 ATS in the past five home meetings with the Lions. The 'under' is also 5-2 in the past seven at Soldier Field between these combatants.

-- The lowly Falcons are back from their bye week, and they're facing a Saints team which is also coming off a rest. Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in the past seven following a bye, but just 5-17 ATS in the past 22 on the road and 1-5 ATS in the past six games overall. New Orleans has covered six in a row, and they're 10-2 ATS in the past 12 following a bye week while cashing in 17 of the past 25 inside the division while going 6-2 ATS in the past eight against losing teams. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings, and 2-6 ATS in the past eight trips to NOLA.

-- The fifth and final divisional battle will take place on Monday in a highly anticipated game between the Seahawks and unbeaten 49ers, the last unbeaten in the NFL. How many people had that prediction? The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in the past 10 on the road, while going 9-4-1 ATS in the past 14 meetings on Monday Night Football. The 49ers blasted the Browns earlier this season on MNF, and they're 27-7 ATS in their past 34 appearances on MNF. The Seahawks are 11-3-1 ATS in the past 15 in this series, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven trips to San Francisco, but these 49ers are a completely different animal, and it's a good idea to ignore those trends.
 
Close Calls - Week 9
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 9 of the NFL regular season.

Every home team covered in Week 9 heading into Monday night but not without late drama in several games.

San Francisco 49ers (-10) 28, Arizona Cardinals 25 (43½): While Arizona put up a decent fight they allowed a score on the final play of the first half to fall behind 21-7. Scoring a few minutes out of the break kept the Cardinals in the game but San Francisco answered three minutes later to lead 28-14 heading into the fourth quarter. In the final frame a long Cardinals drive resulted in a field goal to trim the margin to 11, with the decision to kick due to facing 4th-and-13. That wasn’t going to be quite enough for the underdog on a spread that leaped from +7 all the way to +10. The Arizona defense held and Kyler Murray and Andy Isabella connected for 88 yards to put the Cardinals back in play for the upset. The-two-point conversion was good and it was a 3-point margin. San Francisco converted three third downs including one that was upheld on a challenge to melt the remaining clock, moving to 8-0.

Buffalo Bills (-10½) 24, Washington Redskins 9 (37): A rout seemed possible with a quick 10-0 lead for the Bills in the first quarter. Washington managed a second quarter field goal but a strong Bills kickoff return followed and it was 17-3. Washington got three more before the break to trail by 11, right near the closing spread. A productive Bills drive out of halftime was stopped on 4th-and-1 and eventually Washington added three more to trail by just eight with a spread that was as low as +9½ before climbing back up. Four consecutive punts kept the scoring in check and aided the ‘under’ before the Bills inherited great field position with about six minutes remaining. The play of the game relative to the spread was Buffalo facing 3rd-and-18 in deep field goal range. An incomplete pass and Buffalo likely punts to pin Washington back but Josh Allen connected with John Brown for 23 yards. Still ahead of the two-minute warning Buffalo wasn’t going to be able to run out the clock and eventually added a Devin Singletary touchdown to flip the spread result with just 2:21 to go. Dwayne Haskins got the Redskins near midfield before falling short on 4th-and-4 in a mediocre but perhaps slightly better than some expected performance in his first NFL start against a quality defense on the road.

Carolina Panthers (-3) 30, Tennessee Titans 20 (43): After a scoreless first quarter the Panthers scored 17 in the second and led 24-7 through three quarters. The Titans completed a 94-yard drive early in the fourth but allowed a 58-yard run to Christian McCaffrey a few minutes later to stay down by 16 as a slight underdog, though the spread was +3½ or higher much of the week. Ryan Tannehill was intercepted on Tennessee’s next drive in Carolina territory but the Panthers would miss a field goal to keep the Titans in the game. With fewer than three minutes remaining Tennessee found the end zone but didn’t get the conversion to trail by 10, leaving the door open for a spread-spoiling touchdown if they got the ball back. Only 20 seconds came off the clock on Carolina’s 3-and-out with Tennessee only needing to burn two timeouts thanks to a 2nd down pass call from the Panthers. The Titans went down the field quickly but had to waste a down to stop the clock with just over a minute remaining on 3rd down and opted for a field goal on 4th-and-3 to the relief of those on the Panthers. The kick was ultimately missed anyway but the 19-point fourth quarter did clear the total ‘over’.

Philadelphia Eagles (-5) 22, Chicago Bears 14 (41): The Eagles dominated the first half in this playoff rematch as in a week where Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense came under great scrutiny, the offense had negative total production five drives into the game and didn’t pick up a first down until the final minute of the first half. Philadelphia extended a 12-0 halftime lead to 19-0 going 84 yards after halftime but Chicago would score touchdowns on two of its next three drives to trail by five, even with a common spread on the game. A pair of punts followed before a great Carson Wentz drive, burning more than eight minutes of clock in a 16-play effort that resulted in a field goal in the final minute of the game to give the Eagles the clear win and cover.

Kansas City Chiefs (+5½) 26, Minnesota Vikings 23 (46): The line on this game was not commonly available until the weekend and with Patrick Mahomes ruled out the road favorite price kept climbing. A 10-10 tie at halftime was broken with a short-field Vikings touchdown following a Chiefs fumble on the kickoff after the break. Minnesota missed the PAT however and that allowed the Chiefs to lead by one after Damien Williams broke a 91-yard run late in the third quarter. The Chiefs added a field goal to lead by four but Minnesota went in front by three early in the fourth. The Vikings weren’t able to hold on defense however even with a huge 3rd-and-13 sack to push Harrison Butker’s tying field goal attempt to 54 yards. Still ahead of the two-minute warning Kirk Cousins went backwards on Minnesota’s chance for a go-ahead drive. A terrible punt followed as special teams issues continue to haunt Mike Zimmer with the Chiefs starting at Minnesota’s 45-yard-line. A sack on 1st down gave Minnesota a chance to get to overtime but Matt Moore connected for two solid gains and Butker was good from 44 yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) 26, Indianapolis Colts 24 (39½): A common fallacy is assuming a near-even line won’t come into play but the difference between +1 and -1 looked significant in the Colts/Steelers game much of the way with either option available on either team depending on the timing. The scoring got off a normal trajectory as Pittsburgh recovered its own fumble in the end zone late in the third quarter to take a safety instead of allowing a touchdown, trimming a 20-16 lead to 20-18. The Colts would fumble the kickoff to botch an opportunity to have good field position and despite gaining only four yards, the Steelers added three points to lead by five. With Brian Hoyer at quarterback most of the game the Colts were in the red zone midway through the third but faced a decision on 4th-and-2. Hoyer connected for the touchdown but the Colts didn’t get the two-point try as the lead was one. A big defensive pass interference call withstood review but from 1st-and-goal the Steelers had to settle for a short kick to go back in front by two with still six minutes to go. Punts were exchanged before Hoyer and the Colts got the ball back with 2:28 to go from their own 15. Pass interference would again be the central conversation with Indianapolis gaining 35 yards on a call that withstood review. Pittsburgh would also challenge for offensive pass interference later in the drive but with no change of course. Indianapolis reached field goal range but lost three yards on 3rd-and-1 with just over a minute to go. Adam Vinatieri would miss in another high profile spot from 43 yards as Pittsburgh escaped with the win.
 
Oakland Raiders (-3) 31, Detroit Lions 24 (51½): While both teams moved the ball well, the scoring stalled in the third quarter as the Lions settled for a short field goal to tie the game 17-17. Off-setting penalties offset a potential 3rd down stop for the Lions early in the fourth quarter and on the re-play Oakland went up 24-17. After a series of punts the Lions took advantage of good field position to tie the game with just over five minutes remaining. Oakland quickly earned 1st-and-goal as the two-minute warning approached but on 3rd-and-9 Oakland connected to go back up by seven. The Lions got two chunks of yardage on penalties but in the final minute Matthew Stafford took a sack from the 4-yard-line. Facing 3rd-and-goal from the 14, Detroit got 13 yards and Oakland held on the final play with an incomplete pass on a jump ball off play-action, with Lions fans certainly having a valid case that the defender’s contact was early.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) 40, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 (50½): +6 and even briefly +6½ was available early in the week on the Buccaneers. It didn’t seem to matter with a 21-7 early lead for the road underdog. Halfway through the third quarter Seattle connected for a touchdown and a 2-point conversion to tie the game. Matching field goals followed to make it 24-24 early in the fourth before both teams had fumbles. Taking advantage of great field position Seattle took its first lead of the game with eight minutes to go on a short field goal. The Buccaneers were able to tie the game with five minutes to go. It took only three plays for Seattle to answer, hitting a 53-yard touchdown to pass up the favorite spread for the first time in the game. Jameis Winston converted a 4th down at the two-minute warning and then put Tampa Bay into the end zone in the final minute. With still 46 seconds to go, Tampa Bay kicked the PAT to tie the game. To no one’s surprise Russell Wilson was able to get the Seahawks in position to win but Jason Myers missed from 40 yards, setting up the nightmare scenario to come for Buccaneers backers. Seattle won the toss and an exhausted Buccaneers defense was picked apart. An illegal contract call gave Seattle a big first down to get into field goal range and on 3rd-and-6 the Seahawks struck for 29 yards, inevitably getting into the end zone two plays later for the win and the undeserved favorite cover for most.

Denver Broncos (+4) 24, Cleveland Browns 19 (39): Before Joe Flacco was ruled out, the Broncos were a slight favorite in this game but were +3 to +4 with Brandon Allen set for his first NFL action. Allen played well and led the Broncos to a 17-12 lead at halftime, with Denver’s defense holding Cleveland to four field goals. A Phillip Linsday run put Denver up by 12 late in the third quarter but the Browns got back within five early in the fourth. Cleveland forced a punt and had the ball back with still more than seven minutes to go. A signature drive was possible for Baker Mayfield in what has been a difficult season. The Browns reached 3rd-and-1 at the Denver 25 and kept the ball out of Mayfield’s hands with a rush from Nick Chubb losing three yards. Mayfield fell incomplete on 4th down as the Broncos held on to surpass the Browns in the ACC standings.
 
251KANSAS CITY -252 TENNESSEE
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

253BUFFALO -254 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the last 3 seasons.

255ARIZONA -256 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after 2 straight overs in the last 2 seasons.

257NY GIANTS -258 NY JETS
NY GIANTS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

259ATLANTA -260 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

259ATLANTA -260 NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game in the last 2 seasons.

261BALTIMORE -262 CINCINNATI
BALTIMORE is 12-1 ATS (10.9 Units) in road games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=375 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.

263CAROLINA -264 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 37-14 ATS (21.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

265DETROIT -266 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 11-0 ATS (11 Units) in home games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992.

267MIAMI -268 INDIANAPOLIS
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game in the last 3 seasons.

269LA RAMS -270 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 64-30 ATS (31 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) since 1992.

271MINNESOTA -272 DALLAS
MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS (11.2 Units) in games played on turf in the last 3 seasons.
 
NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Sunday, November 10

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KANSAS CITY (6 - 3) at TENNESSEE (4 - 5) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 118-157 ATS (-54.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (6 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 6) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 5 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 6) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
ARIZONA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (2 - 7) at NY JETS (1 - 7) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 39-65 ATS (-32.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 38-59 ATS (-26.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY JETS are 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY JETS are 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (1 - 7) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 1) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (6 - 2) at CINCINNATI (0 - 8) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (5 - 3) at GREEN BAY (7 - 2) - 11/10/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 113-84 ATS (+20.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 197-142 ATS (+40.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 73-47 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 120-89 ATS (+22.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (3 - 4 - 1) at CHICAGO (3 - 5) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 54-80 ATS (-34.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (1 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3) - 11/10/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA RAMS (5 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 4) - 11/10/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 72-105 ATS (-43.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 82-55 ATS (+21.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
LA RAMS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (6 - 3) at DALLAS (5 - 3) - 11/10/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
 
NFL

Week 10

Trend Report

Sunday, November 10

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chicago's last 13 games
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games at home
Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Detroit
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 4-8-1 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Detroit is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Chicago
Detroit is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
New Orleans is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Atlanta is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Tennessee is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games at home
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Kansas City's last 14 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games at home
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Baltimore is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 6-18-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Cleveland's last 24 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Buffalo is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Cleveland

New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games
NY Jets is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games
NY Jets is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
NY Jets is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games at home
NY Jets is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
NY Jets is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
NY Jets is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
NY Jets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY Giants is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
NY Giants is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Giants is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 22 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games when playing Arizona
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 3-9-1 SU in its last 13 games
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games when playing Tampa Bay
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
Indianapolis is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
Indianapolis is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
Indianapolis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 12 games on the road
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Miami is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
 
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Carolina
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Pittsburgh's last 20 games at home
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
LA Rams is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games
LA Rams is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games on the road
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
LA Rams is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
LA Rams is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 11 games
Dallas is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Dallas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 12 games at home
Dallas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota
Dallas is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 15 games
Minnesota is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Minnesota is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games on the road
Minnesota is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
Minnesota is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
 
NFL

Week 10

Chiefs (6-3) @ Titans (4-5)— Mahomes (knee) may return here; check status. Chiefs are 4-0 SU on road, 2-3 at home TY; they’re 13-6 ATS in last 19 games as a road favorite, 3-1 TY. KC has only one takeaway in its last three games and scored only 22 points in last six red zone drives. Tennessee won its last two home games by total of 7 points; their home losses are by 2-7 points. Titans covered four of last six games as a home underdog; all three Tannehill starts went over. Tennessee won last three series games, winning last meeting 22-21 in a 2017 playoff game at Arrowhead. This is KC’s first visit to Nashville since ’13. AFC West teams are 14-12 ATS outside the division, 2-2 as road favorites; AFC South teams 13-11 ATS, 8-5 as an underdog.

Bills (6-2) @ Browns (2-6)— Cleveland lost its last four games, giving up 28.5 ppg; they lost all three home games SU, by 30-7-4 points. Browns are 0-3 in games decided by 7 or less points, 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 0-2 TY. Buffalo is 19-12-2 ATS in last 33 games as a road underdog, 2-0 TY; they’re 3-0 SU on road, last of which was in Week 5. Bills were held to 10-13 points in their two losses; six of eight Buffalo games stayed under the total. Buffalo won four of last five series games; last four meetings were all decided by 10+ points. Bills lost two of last three visits to Dawg Pound. AFC East underdogs are 4-6 ATS outside the division, 2-3 on road; AFC North home favorites are 0-8 ATS outside the division.

Cardinals (3-5-1) @ Buccaneers (2-6)— Tampa Bay is 4-15-1 ATS in its last 20 games as a home favorite; Bucs’ coach Arians faces his old team (49-30-1 from 2013-17) here- this is Tampa Bay’s first home game since Week 3. Bucs lost their last four games overall, giving up 33.8 ppg- they scored 32.8 ppg in five games where they turned ball over less than two times. Cardinals covered four of last five games, three of four road games; they haven’t turned ball over at all (+4) in their last five games. Redbirds are 7-4-1 ATS in last dozen games as a road underdog, 3-1 TY. Arizona won last three series games, winning last one 38-33 two years ago. NFC West road underdogs are 7-1 ATS outside their division.

Giants (2-6) vs Jets (1-7)— This is both teams’ home field; not much to choose from here. Giants turned ball over three times in their 37-18 home loss to Dallas Monday nite; they’ve coughed ball up 16 times (-5) in their last six games, are 1-4 SU on this field, with only win over Washington. Three of their last four games went over total. Jets lost last three games, by 33-14-8 points; they were outscored 64-19 in first half of those games. Gang Green has a -12 turnover ratio in last five games- five of their seven losses are by 14+ points. Giants won five of last six series games; two of last four meetings went to OT. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-7 ATS; AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-6 ATS.

Falcons (1-7) @ Saints (7-1)— Atlanta shuffled some assistant coaches during bye week, signed their 5th punter of year; not good. Falcons lost their last six games (1-5 ATS); they’re 0-4 SU on road, losing by 16-3-1-21 points- they’re 1-9 ATS in last ten games a road underdog, 0-3 TY. Three of their four road games went over total. New Orleans won/covered its last six games; Brees came back from injury last game and threw for 373 yards. Saints won last three series games, by 10-6-14 points; Falcons lost six of last eight visits to Bourbon Street, losing 23-13/31-17 in last two. Both teams are coming off a bye; Atlanta covered six of last eight post-bye games, New Orleans is 8-1-1 ATS in last ten post-bye tilts.

Ravens (6-2) @ Bengals (0-8)— Trap game for Ravens after they spanked Patriots LW. Rookie QB Finley gets his first NFL start here for winless Bengals; QB’s making their first career start this season are an amazing 9-1 ATS (5-4-1 SU). Ravens (-11) beat Bengals 23-17 at home four weeks ago, running ball for 269 yards- they outgained Cincy 497-250. Teams split season series last three years; Ravens lost six of last seven visits to Cincy. Ravens won last four games, scoring 25.3 ppg; they’re 7-12-1 ATS ij last 20 games as a road favorite, 1-1 TY- five of their last six games went over. Bengals are 0-3 SU at home, losing by 24-3-10 points; they covered one of last five post-bye games. Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

Panthers (5-3) @ Packers (7-2)— Carolina won five of six Allen starts; they’re 2-1 SU in true road games, with only loss at 8-0 49ers- their last four games went over. Panthers are 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog, 2-1 TY. Packers had 4-game win streak snapped by Chargers LW; LA outgained them 442-184. Green Bay is 23-14-2 in last 39 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY. Five of their last seven games went over. Since 2015, Packers are 13-15 ATS coming off a loss. Carolina won last two series games, 37-29/31-24; this is Carolina’s first trip to Lambeau in five years- they’re 2-4 SU in Green Bay. NFC South road underdogs are 5-7 ATS outside the division; NFC North home favorites are 5-5.

Lions (3-4-1) @ Bears (3-5)— Detroit had ball on Oakland’s 1-yard line at end of LW’s game, didn’t score and lost for third time TY by 7 or less points- only one of Lions’ eight games was decided by more than 7 points. Under Patricia, Detroit is 6-3 ATS as a road underdog, 2-1 TY. Last six Detroit games went over the total. Bears lost last four games, outscored 48-19 in first half; they have one takeaway (-4) in last three games, after having 10 in first five games. Chicago is 1-3 ATS as a home favorite TY, after being 6-0 LY. Bears are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games with a spread of 3 or fewer points. Chicago swept Lions 34-22/23-16 LY, after losing nine of previous ten series games; Detroit lost two of last three visits to the Windy City.

Dolphins (1-7) @ Colts (5-3)— Indy QB Brissett has sprained MCL (check status). Miami led its last three games at halftime; they covered last four games, but have been outscored 136-25 in 2nd half of games this year. Dolphins are 5-13 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog, 2-1 TY. Five of their last seven games stayed under. Colts had 3-game win snapped when they missed a 43-yard FG with 1:11 left; Indy won three of four home games, is 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite. Five of their eight games were decided by 3 or fewer points or in OT. Indy won six of last seven series games; five of the six wins were by 6 or fewer points. AFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 ATS; AFC East underdogs are 4-6 ATS, 2-3 on road.

Rams (5-3) @ Steelers (4-4)— Steelers won last three games after a 1-4 start; they covered five of last six games, are 3-2 SU at home, with two losses by total of 5 points. Over last decade, Pitt is 9-4-1 ATS as a home underdog, 2-0 TY- they’ve had a positive TO ratio in their last seven games. LA won its last two games, converting 15-29 3rd down plays, after a 3-game skid when they were 7-31 on 3rd down. Rams are 10-6 as road favorites under McVay, 9-2-1 ATS in last 12 post-bye games, winning 51-17/30-16 in last two. Pitt won last three series games by combined score of 80-30; Rams lost five of last six visits to Steel City, with their last win here in ’03. AFC North home teams are 1-10 ATS outside their division; NFC West road favorites are 3-2.

Vikings (6-3) @ Cowboys (5-3)— Minnesota won four of last five games, losing on last-second FG at Arrowhead LW; Vikings are 6-10 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog, 0-3 TY— they held six of eight opponents to 21 or fewer points. Cowboys scored 31+ points in all five of their wins, 10-24-22 in their losses. Dallas is 6-3-1 ATS in last 10 games as a home favorite, 3-1 TY; they ran ball for 189-172 yards in their last two games, both divisional wins. Three of last four games for both teams went over the total. Teams split last six series games, with last one in ‘16; Vikings split last six visits here, last of which was in ’13. NFC East teams are 9-14 ATS outside the division, 3-3 as HF; NFC North teams are 11-12-1 ATS, 2-3 as road underdogs.
 
Hot & Not Report - Week 10
Matt Blunt

Week of November 4th

Admittedly it was nice to take a minor step back from the chaos that is football season the past two weeks with looks at what was going on in the MLB and NBA. Last week's piece dealt with the two teams that squared off in the NBA Finals last year and discussed how both the Warriors and Raptors will likely be great long term fades this year.

Since that piece went up, Toronto's posted a 2-1 record both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), while the Warriors went 1-3 SU and ATS. Not exactly the best results, but not exactly the worst results either on a blind theory that can be continually used and considered for the next few months.

Today it's back to the football field though, as the NFL dominates this industry and that's where people want to ingest their information. And while it would be easy to include the fact that home teams on US soil have gone a perfect 12-0 ATS in Week 9, that's not where I'm going at all. That's not really actionable information going forward in my view, and you've got to trust the Giants to continue that run tonight on MNF. Not something I'm interested in.

Instead, it's a look at a couple of trends that should at least be considered for a few games over the next two weeks in the NFL, as it deals with teams in the following game after a trip to London. There is always a lot of chatter about theories for what to take for those London games, but never much about the return trip home. Hopefully these streaks can help you break down those return games a little better.

Who's Hot

Taking 'overs' for NFL teams in their first game back after a London game: 8-2 O/U last two years; including 4-0 O/U this season.

Taking 'overs' in London games tends to be a popular refrain, but it's actually the following game for these teams that is the better time to look that way. The 'over' is 8-2 in post-London games the past two years, with the average total points being scored clocking in at 53.9 points per game. Not one of those games has finished with fewer than 42 points in that span, and if you are looking for team totals, the post-London team averages 24 PPG themselves in this role. In eight of those 10 games they've put up at least 23 points as well.

You can break it down even further in terms of being home or away in these post-London games as well, with teams at home going a perfect 3-0 O/U the past two years, and road sides going 5-2 O/U. In Week 10 we've got one team that fits each scenario, as the Cincinnati Bengals are at home hosting a Ravens team that's coming off a huge SNF win over New England, while the Los Angeles Rams are out on the road visiting Pittsburgh. And we can't leave out in Week 11 that Houston's on the road in Baltimore, while Jacksonville's on the road against Indianapolis. So we might see a few more Ravens game sail 'over' the number in the coming weeks like last night's win over the Patriots did.

In terms of finding tangible reasons why these 'overs' after a London game are coming in, the most obvious would be that these teams are rested and prepared as they are coming off a bye in every instance.

Having two weeks to prepare for a team in the NFL is a distinct advantage as long as coaching staffs and players make the most of their time, and generally speaking it will show up on the offensive end. After all, the name of the game is to score more points then the other guy, so you might as well spend more of your prep time trying to do that.

In terms of this year's numbers alone, three of the four teams coming off a London game have seen their next contests finish with 60+ points, and only the Carolina Panthers managed to put up fewer then 23 points themselves. However, even with these high point totals and teams scoring 24 points per game on average, that doesn't necessary equate to SU or ATS wins the following game as...

Who's Not

NFL teams in a post-London game are 3-6-1 SU and ATS the past two seasons; 0-3 ATS at home and 0-4 ATS in 2019

This was the more surprising part of the findings when backtracking this stuff, as you would think a post-bye scenario would lead to teams putting up more wins they they are. The fact that not one of these post-London teams has come close to covering the spread this year was very surprising, but still not as bad as the fact that three of the four of them had lost that following game by double-digits. Chicago got smoked at home by New Orleans (36-25), Oakland got smoked by Green Bay (42-24), and Carolina got smoked by San Francisco (51-13). If that pattern holds true in Week 10, you've got to figure that Cincinnati Bengals fans should probably get into the hard liquor rather early next Sunday with Baltimore coming to town.

Furthermore, if you take the push out of the equation (Jacksonville's 29-26 loss @ Indianapolis last year as +3 road dogs), all the other nine games are correlated in that the point spread hasn't mattered. Pick the SU winner and the ATS victory follows, and all three of the SU and ATS winners closed as either pick'em or underdogs – Seattle at (+3) in Detroit in Week 8 of 2018, LA Chargers at (pk) in Seattle in Week 9 of 2018, and Tennessee (+4.5) at Dallas in Week 9 of 2018 as well.

Only the Bengals are underdogs this week and it's tough to see them winning SU vs Baltimore, especially when all three of those previous winners were out on the road. That's where the Rams find themselves this week, but they are currently laying chalk (-4), but keep this in mind for Week 11 when the Jaguars and Texans are both out on the road and likely both catching points against Indy and Baltimore respectively.

Do with this information what you will, but don't be surprised if these four post-London games over the next two weeks have some points being put up.
 
Tech Trends - Week 10
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Nov. 10

KANSAS CITY at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 3-1 vs. line away TY, 9-3 vs. spread on road since LY. KC “over” 11-4 last 15 reg season games, Titans “over” 6-2 last 8 at Nashville.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Chiefs, based on “totals” and team trends.


BUFFALO at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills 5-0-1 vs. spread last six on road, also 8-3 “under” since late 2018. Browns no covers last four as host.
Tech Edge: Bills and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


ARIZONA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cardinals have covered 4 of last 5 after SF last Thursday, also 3-1 vs. line away TY. Bucs now “over” 7-2 last 9 since late LY. Also TB first home game since Week 3!
Tech Edge: Cards and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NY GIANTS at NY JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jets 2-6 vs. line TY, 2-8-1 last eleven dating to late 2018. G-Men “over” 11-6 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.


ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs have lost and failed to cover 6 of last 8 in series, including 3 of last 4 at Superdome. Atlanta no covers last five as visitor. Saints on 6-game spread win streak.
Tech Edge: Saints, based on team trends.


BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens 6-1 vs. spread last seven on road. Winless Bengals 0-3 vs. spread at Paul Brown TY, also “under” 8-3-2 last 13 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Ravens and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


DETROIT at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears only 2-7 last 9 on board since late 2018 , 12-3 “under” last 15 since late 2018. Lions 5-2 vs. spread last seven on road since late 2018. “Unders” 5-2 last seven meetings.
Tech Edge: Lions and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals’ trends.


MIAMI at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Dolphins have covered last four TY. Colts “over” 4-1 last five at Lucas Oil.
Tech Edge: Dolphins and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


CAROLINA at GREEN BAY (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Panthers 5-1 vs. spread last five TY, 3-1 on road in 2019. Rivera 2-2 as dog TY, 20-10 as dog since late 2014. Pack 6-3 vs. line TY.
Tech Edge: Panthers, based on team trends.


L.A. RAMS at PITTSBURGH (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Rams 8-2 vs. line last 10 reg season games, and have covered last six reg season away from Coliseum. Also 8-2 “under” last ten away from home. Steel 5-1 vs. line since Big Ben went down, and note Tomlin's 8-1 mark in dog role since LY. Steel on 6-2 “under” run.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on totals” trends.


MINNESOTA at DALLAS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Dak 6-1-1 vs. spread last eight at home (3-1 TY). Zimmer “under” 18-9-2 since late 2017. Vikes 2-6 last 8 as dog.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
 
NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 10:

Road Teams: 75-58-2 ATS
Home Teams: 58-75-2 ATS

Favorites: 57-76-2 ATS
Underdogs: 76-57-2 ATS

Home Faves: 35-53-2 ATS
Home Dogs: 23-22 ATS

Road Faves: 22-23 ATS
Road Dogs: 53-35-2 ATS

O/U: 65-70


NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Saints 6-2 ATS
t1. Rams 6-2 ATS
t3. Patriots 6-3 ATS
t3. Packers 6-3 ATS
t3. Cardinals 6-3 ATS
t6. 49ers, Bills, Panthers, Cowboys, Raiders, & Steelers Tied at 5-3 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

t28. Jets 2-6 ATS
t28. Falcons 2-6 ATS
t28. Buccaneers 2-6 ATS
t28. Browns 2-6 ATS
t28. Bears 2-6 ATS
t26. Redskins 3-6 ATS
t26. Giants 3-6 ATS


Nick Foles has regained his job as the Jaguars’ starting QB.

Gardner Minshew has resumed his spot as a backup.

Cam Newton has been placed on IR, likely ending his season and potentially his time in Carolina.
 
MVP PATH GOES THROUGH SAN FRAN

The San Francisco 49ers stand as the only undefeated team in the league having won against QBs Kyler Murray, Kyle Allen, Case Keenum, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph in the last month and a half.

Out of all those signal callers, the more mobile Murray was the one whose offense put up 357 yards (the most San Francico has allowed this year) and 19 first downs (the most allowed since Week 2). This Monday, the 49ers will start a tough schedule where they have to play three Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks in a month, starting with the league’s MVP frontrunner: Russell Wilson.

Wilson is coming into this matchup with a league-best passer rating of 118.2 and 22 touchdowns to one interception. The Seattle Seahawks QB will have to use his legs and elusiveness to breakdown the league’s best DVOA pass defense and aggressive pass rush.

Wilson will face a San Fran defense that plays zone more than nearly every other team in the league. Per Sharp Football, Wilson picks up 9.3 yards per attempt and has a 61-percent success versus zone defenses, compared to 6.7 YPA and 45 percent versus man coverage.

This is good news for the Seahawks receivers D.K. Metcalf, Jaron Brown and Josh Gordon, who average six-foot-three and nearly 220 pounds. Look for Wilson to use that size advantage versus the smaller San Francisco secondary while also allowing Tyler Lockett to do what he does: 19 catches for 252 yards and two scores in his last two games.

San Francisco's loss of linebacker Kwon Alexander is also a huge problem as he was ranked as the best coverage linebacker in the league per ProFootballFocus.

We like the Seahawks +6. They are also 3-1 ATS on the road this year with the only ATS loss being a 7-point win in Atlanta as 7.5-point chalk.


JONES EATS WITH THE LEAD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones started again last week and outperformed Peyton Barber for the second straight week.

In games where Jones receives at least 14 carries (three games), the RB is averaging 4.3 yards per carry with two TDs. The problem for Jones lies in the game flow. If Tampa Bay is playing from behind, then third-down back Dare Ogunbowale will get the majority of the snaps. With the 3-5-1 Arizona Cardinals on deck for Sunday, the Bucs will have a much better shot at playing with the lead as 4.5-point home favorites.

The Cardinals sit 23rd in rush attempts against at 28 and are allowing 4.5 yards per carry. However, stay away from the Jones anytime TD prop as Arizona is tied for third fewest rushing TDs allowed.

We like Jones’ total yards prop better than just rushing as he has been steadily chipping in one or two grabs a game and averaging 15.5 yards per reception. Take the Over on Jones’ total yards on any number below 82.


THURSDAY NIGHT AIR RAID

No team in the league has allowed more passing touchdowns than the Oakland Raiders. So far in 2019, Jon Gruden’s team is giving up 2.7 touchdowns through the air per game and is allowing a tasty 3.7 passing TDs a game over its last three.

This is great news for Los Angeles Chargers QB Philip Rivers, whose team is coming off a dominating performance versus Green Bay last week where Rivers tossed for 294 yards but no touchdown passes. Rivers has not been held to zero touchdowns in back-to-back games since December 2015 and has 45 TDs in 26 career games against the Raiders including three straight games of two or more versus his AFC West rivals.

We are jumping on the Rivers Over 1.5 TDs play for some Thursday Night Football action.


SOMEONE HAS TO WIN THIS GAME

Just when things were getting exciting for the Giants as the offense was finally getting healthy, Sterling Shepard re-entered concussion protocol before Monday night’s game and now Evan Engram is dealing with a foot injury.

Having lost five straight games while averaging a league-worst 2.4 giveaways, things are looking bleak ahead of their game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.

Speaking of turnovers, this game could easily feature half a dozen as the Jets are just as bad at keeping the ball, turning it over 3.3 times over their last three games. Despite all the poor quarterback play from both teams, playing on a short week won’t help the Giants get healthier versus a Jets team that just lost to the lowly Dolphins – an added motivation.

We’re grabbing the home dogs at +3 as it looks as if that line will move under that key number, with some markets already showing +2.5.
 
NFL trends for Week 10:

— Buffalo covered seven of its last ten games.

— Carolina is 24-12 ATS in last 36 games as a road underdog.

— Chicago covered eight of its last nine NFC North games.

— Ravens are 9-4 ATS in last 13 AFC North road games.

— Arizona covered seven of its last ten games.

— Dallas is 8-3-1 ATS in last dozen home games.

— Titans are 8-16-2 ATS in last 26 games as a home underdog.

— Tampa Bay is 4-13 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.

— Seattle covered its last five games as a divisional road dog.

— Vikings covered 12 of last 17 games as a road underdog.

— New Orleans won/covered its last six games.

— Green Bay covered 12 of its last 17 games.
 
HUNTING FOR CHUBB

Nick Chubb currently sits fourth in the league in rushing with 806 yards — behind Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette — thanks to his 5.2 yards per rush (sixth best). So of course, Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens said he wants to scale back his attempts to make room for Kareem Hunt who had been suspended for the first eight games of the season. Kitchens sure has a good grasp on how to run a stereotypical Cleveland football team.

The Buffalo Bills have allowed the third-most rushing attempts over the last three weeks (31 per game) at a clip of 4.8 yards per attempt. This means there is still plenty of room for Chubb to get 17-20 rushes on Sunday as Hunt will most likely absorb a good piece of backup RB Dontrell Hilliard’s 40 percent snap share.

Chubb has eclipsed 85 yards rushing in five of his last six weeks against the fourth, 24th, 20th, 22nd and 13th DVOA rush defenses — Buffalo is ranked 30th. Take Chubbs’ Over 91.5 rushing total as the matchup might be Kitchens-proof.


ROAD DOGS LOST THEIR BITE

If you have been following the ATS trends of road and home teams this year, then you will know that the visitors have been dominating with road underdogs hitting at an even higher rate. Heading into last week, road teams were 73-47-2 ATS (60%) and road dogs were 52-29-2 (63%) ATS. However, Week 9 saw a serious regression to the mean as home teams went 11-3 ATS while road dogs went 1-6 ATS.

This week, we like home teams to continue their hot run and are throwing down a two-teamer to prove it. Yesterday, we wrote about backing the Jets as three-point home dogs, so we will exclude them from this list.

Rams at Steelers (+3.5): The Steelers are coming in hot having won four of their last five (with their only loss in overtime against the Ravens) and will look to move into a playoff position with a win over the well-rested Los Angeles Rams. L.A.’s strength of schedule may hurt them as their last three wins were against teams who are 3-21 combined this year.

The game could easily be won on the pass rush where the Steelers are second in the league in QB hits produced while their quarterback, Mason Rudolph, has been sacked more than once just two times in his six game.

Vikings at Cowboys (-3): The Vikes have lost three road games this year to Chicago, Green Bay and last week in Kansas City — all by at least three points. The offense will also be with Adam Thielen as Kirk Cousins and his 15-26-2 career road record and 1-6 record versus the Cowboys could struggle in primetime.


THE BEST ARE GETTING BETTER

The San Francisco 49ers run game is good — really good. They lead the NFC in rushing yards per game, rushes per game and rushing touchdowns per game. Things could possibly be getting better for Kyle Shanahan’s rushing attack as left tackle Joe Stanley plans to play in Week 10 against a Seattle Seahawks team that has allowed 367 yards on the ground over the last three weeks.

The 49ers have been less efficient running to the left tackle side as their 4.01 yards per carry is one full yard less than their yards per carry behind the right tackle. Matt Breida saw his snap count increase by 10 percent in Week 9 as he outgained fellow running back Tevin Coleman 78 to 23 but played 12 fewer offensive snaps. The Seahawks’ 22nd ranked DVOA rush defense may have no answers for the 49ers rushing game.

We are jumping on Breida’s rushing total of 56.5 yards and hitting the Over is what is shaping up to be an epic Monday night matchup.


RIDING THE ROOKIE WAVE

The Cincinnati Bengals have benched Andy Dalton for rookie Ryan Finley ahead of their Week 10 contest against the talk of the town Baltimore Ravens. The former Wolfpack was the sixth signal-caller taken in this year’s draft and finished the preseason with a 72.3 percent completion rate while only taking four sacks in 64 pass attempts.

We usually like fading rookies, but with how much praise Baltimore is getting after their win over the Patriots, the Ravens may be sleeping on the Bengals who could have the services of A.J. Green. Dalton averaged 281.5 yards a game while taking 3.6 sacks a game proving the offensive potential is there and that this isn't a Luke Falk situation.

Fellow rookie QBs Gardner Minshew, Daniel Jones and Kyle Allen all threw for over 250 yards in their first taste of the NFL this year. Let’s ride the rookie wave and play the Over 250.5 passing yards on Finley and hopefully, he will be drowning in memes come Monday.


KICKERS ARE PEOPLE TOO

For this week’s kicking prop, we are going to stick with what’s working. We are 3-0 over the last three weeks fading the weather in the northeast. Checking out the Covers weather report we can see that poor kicking conditions are expected in Cleveland where the Buffalo Bills meet the Browns.

The weather looks below freezing with strong winds and a high chance of snow. That’s great news as Bills kicker Stephen Hauschka who has yet to make a kick from 50 or longer and hasn’t hit anything longer than 45 yards since Week 4. Cleveland Kicker Austin Seibert has yet to attempt a kick longer than 49.

Take the Under 46.5 yards on the longest field goal.
 
Gridiron Angles - Week 10
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Cardinals are 10-0-1 ATS (.27 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 as a road dog of no more than 13 points coming off a game where they allowed at least 400 total yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 0-11-1 ATS (-7.25 ppg) since Oct 29, 2017 when their last two games both went over the total.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS (9.56 ppg) since Oct 22, 2017 as a favorite coming off a game where Ezekiel Elliott had at least 20 rushes.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Browns are 0-12 OU (-8.21 ppg) since Dec 06, 2015 at home on grass when they are off two consecutive losses where they failed to cover.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Giants are 14-0 OU (8.57 ppg) since Dec 05, 2004 on the road off a loss as a dog where they allowed at least 150 rushing yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Giants are 0-14 ATS (-13.93 ppg) off a loss when they are facing a team that is averaging less than 278 offensive yards per game.
 
Total Talk - Week 10
Joe Williams

It's Week 10 of the National Football League regular season, and we're already off to a quick start - kinda. The Thursday night battle between the Los Angeles Chargers-Oakland Raiders inched over the finish line for 50 points on a line of 49 at most shops. If you're scoring at home, primetime games have now watched the over connect in four straight, which is a season-long streak for games under the lights this season.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 9 10-4 9-5 6-8
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 66-69-1 65-69-1 60-71-4

The books were back on top in Week 9, but that was mostly due to side bets. The totals were 10-4 in favor of the 'over', which generally is a friend to the public bettor.

Bettors hoping for high-scoring games in Week 9 were very pleased, hitting the over in 10 of 14 outings The games got off to quick starts, too, with the over connecting in the first half in nine of 14 contests, with the 'under' going 8-6 in the second half last week. Through 135 games this season, the 'under' sits at 69-66-1 on the season and the low side also holds slight edges in both wagers for the first-half (69-65-1) and second-half (71-60-4).

Division Bell

In the four divisional battles in Week 9, three went over - including all three of the games on North American soil. Only the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium ended up going under the total, mostly due to the ineffectiveness of the Jags offense. The under is now 24-15 (61.5%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 9
San Francisco at Arizona Over (43.5) San Francisco 28, Arizona 25
Houston vs. Jacksonville (London) Under (46) Houston 26, Jacksonville 3
N.Y. Jets at Miami Over (42.5) Miami 26, N.Y. Jets 18
Dallas at N.Y. Giants Over (48.5) Dallas 37, N.Y. Giants 18

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 10 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Detroit at Chicago: 44 to 41
N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets: 41 ½ to 44 ½
Seattle at San Francisco (MNF): 44 to 47
Buffalo at Cleveland: 42 ½ to 40
Minnesota at Dallas (SNF): 45 ½ to 48
L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: 45 ½ to 43 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 10 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Detroit at Chicago: Under 92%
L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: Under 92%
Miami at Indianapolis: Over 90%
Seattle at San Francisco (MNF): Over 89%
Buffalo at Cleveland: Under 87%
Atlanta at New Orleans: Over 77%
Kansas City at Tennessee: Over 77%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (72 percent) in the N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in Carolina at Green Bay (66 percent) battle.

Handicapping Week 10

Week 9 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-1 16-23
NFC vs. NFC 1-1 15-15
AFC vs. AFC 3-0 14-10-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-2 21-20

Other Week 10 Action

Kansas City at Tennessee: The Chiefs have their big gun back, as QB Patrick Mahomes is expected to be under center after missing the past two due to a partially dislocated kneecap. The over actually hit in each of the past two without Mahomes, and the over is 6-3 in nine games overall. Kansas City is on the road, and there is no real lean here, as the total is 2-2 in four games away from home, all Mahomes starts. The Titans have hit the over in three in a row, scoring 23, 27 and 20, while allowing 20, 23 and 30. It's a big change after the under hit in five in a row from Week 2 through 6. The over is 6-2 in Tennessee's past eight at home, too.

Buffalo at Cleveland: The total has plummeted from 42.5 to 40, and is the lowest total on the board for Week 10. The 'under' opened 5-0 for Buffalo this season, and they were the last team in the NFL to see an 'over' result. The under has hit in all three of Buffalo's game this season, allowing just 12.3 PPG (16, 14 and 7). The under is 8-1 in the past nine overall for Buffalo, too. As far as the Browns are concerned, they were expected to do big things this season. So far, that's only happened once on the road in Week 4 at Baltimore (40 points), and one in Week 6 against Seattle (28 points). They have averaged 14 PPG in the other six outings.

While the Browns are actually favored in this game, keep this in mind...if they lose, season win total bettors will at least push the under 9 on tickets since they would drop to 2-7, with the most wins possible at 9. If the Bills win, they would be 7-2, cashing the over of six wins.

Arizona at Tampa Bay: Bucs head coach Bruce Arians will get a crack at his former team for the first time. This total is well in the fifties, sitting at 52.5 as of Saturday morning. Totals that have closed in the fifties this season have hit the over in 11 of 19 games (57.9 percent). If you remember the Thursday Night system, it's 5-3 this season (62.5 percent), getting back on track with Minnesota's over in Kansas City in Week 9. The home team in the previous Thursday night game has hit the over in five of eight games in their following game. Arizona was home to Frisco last time out, so is an over in the cards? The last time the Cardinals have hit the road for the Eastern Time Zone, they scored 17, 26 and 27 points. The 17 points came in Week 2 in Baltimore, as they left a lot of points on the board in QB Kyler Murray's first NFL road start. The Cards have 22 field goals so far this season, which is troublesome for over bettors. Tampa Bay's pass defense might help solve that, however, as they're downright awful. The over has hit in six straight for the Bucs. They have been favorites twice this season, losing both games while allowing 32 and 31 points.

N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets: The Jets offense has been abysmal outside of their lone victory against Dallas back on Oct. 13, scoring a season-best 24 points. They have averaged just 10.8 PPG in four games at home this season, with the 'under' 3-1 in their four games at MetLife. For the G-Men, the 'over' is a perfect 4-0 on the road - although this game is obviously in their very same building where they play their home games, just a different locker room. At MetLife they have scored 14, 24, 10, 21 and 18, hitting the 'under' in four of five. The only over at MetLife came last week against the aforementioned Cowboys, who manhandled the G-Men 37-18. Of course, that game was fortunate to go over, as there was a scoop and score with six seconds to flip the total to over.

Detroit at Chicago: The total has dropped from an open of 43.5 to 41.5, perhaps because the 'under' has cashed in four of the past six battles in this series. While that's all well and good, the 'over' has hit in each of the past two battles at Soldier Field, including a 34-22 Bears win on Nov. 11 last season. The over has been hot for Detroit lately, hitting in three straight, and five of the past six. It's been a combination of two things, as Detroit has scored 22 or more points in six in a row for the Lions, while yielding 23 or more points in each outing. The Bears offense has been poor, posting 16 or fewer points in five of their eight games, hitting the 'under' five times this season. The Chicago defense is also ranked sixth overall, allowing just 18 PPG.

Carolina at Green Bay: The Packers laid a huge egg last week on the road against the Chargers, scoring just 11 points. They nearly ended up in single digits except for a late touchdown and two-point conversion. They'll be glad to be back at Lambeau where they have totals of 21, 27, 27, 23 and 42, hitting the over in three of the past four. For the Panthers, the venue hasn't mattered lately, as they have cashed the over in four straight, and six of eight overall. The offense has produced 30 or more points three of the past four, and the defense has yielded 20 or more points in seven of eight this season. The key to this game will be two-fold. Carolina's pass defense ranks ninth in the NFL, so QB Aaron Rodgers faces a tough task. Green's rush defense is a dismal 24th in the league, so they'll have a difficult time slowing down RB QB Christian McCaffrey.

L.A. Rams at Pittsburgh: The Rams team total is 23.5, and they have hit that in three of the past four games. They're coming off a bye, and they have scored 30 and 51 in head coach Sean McVay's two games off a bye. The Rams have hit the under in six of their past eight games on the road, and the under is 5-1 in the past six on a grass surface, too. The Steelers enter this game as a home underdog for the second time this season. They lost 26-23 to Baltimore back on Oct. 6, one of three over results in the first eight games. For Pittsburgh, the under is 7-3 in their past 10 on a grass surface, although the over has hit in five of the past seven against winning teams, and 14 of their past 20 games at Heinz Field overall. Of course, a good chunk of those games were with Big Ben, Antonio Brown, etc. - guys not on the field in this one.
 
Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 10, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 44 to 51 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Atlanta at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET): QB Matt Ryan is back for the Falcons just in time for this NFC South battle. It hasn't made a lot of difference for the Falcons this season, as they're just 1-7 SU. However, their defense has been horrific, allowing 20 or more points in all eight contests, including 27 or more in each of the past four. Both teams are coming off the bye, and the over is 9-4 in Atlanta's past 13 off a bye, while the over is 10-3 in the past 13 for New Orleans following a rest. In the past six games at home following a bye, the Saints have averaged 43.1 PPG with the over cashing in six in a row and the Saints covering each outing with wins by an average of 16 PPG. In this series, however, the under is 3-1 in the past four meetings, including 2-0 in New Orleans.

Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. ET): The Bengals actually played the Ravens tough in the first meeting on Oct. 13, falling 23-17 in an 'under' result as Cincinnati got the late backdoor on a rushing touchdown by QB Andy Dalton. The 'Red Rifle' isn't coming through that door this week, as QB Ryan Finley makes his first NFL start, and he has had two weeks to prepare with the Bengals coming off a bye. Matt Blunt discusses this game in even further detail in his Hot or Not Report - Week 10. The total is down to 44.5 from an open of 46.5.

Miami at Indianapolis (4:05 p.m. ET): The Dolphins have resembled an NFL-caliber team in the past four games, averaging 19.3 PPG across the past four games on offense after averaging just 6.5 PPG in the first four. Defensively, they have even shown some improvement, allowing just 23.4 PPG in the past four after yielding 40.5 PPG in the first four. They might catch a break, as QB Jacoby Brissett's (knee) injury has him listed as 'questionable' for Sunday. If Brissett doesn't play, QB Brian Hoyer is a downgrade, but not much. He tossed three TDs in Brissett's stead last week. The Colts offense has posted 27, 24, 30 and 15 in four home games, hitting the over three times.

Under the Lights

Minnesota at Dallas (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football tussle has inched up from 47 to 48, although trends are leaning under. That's a surprising move considering both sides rank in the Top 10 in total defense and scoring defense. The under is 9-2 in Minnesota's past 11 against NFC opponents, and 6-2 in their past eight on the road. Remember, the Vikings are coming off a loss, and they have held opponents to 14 and 10 points following setbacks. For Dallas, it's all over all the time, hitting in seven of their past nine against the NFC, and 8-3 in the past 11 overall.

Seattle at San Francisco (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The total has moved from 45 to 47 for this highly-anticipated Monday nighter and NFC West showdown. San Francisco's defense ranks second in the NFL, allowing just 12.8 PPG, but they haven't exactly faced a who's who of quarterbacks. QB Russell Wilson is the league's best passing quarterback this season, posting a 118.2 QB rating. If you bet the trends in this series, you lean under based on the past five of seven at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara going under. However, the over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings overall in this series.
 
SNF - Vikings at Cowboys
Matt Blunt

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It's hard to deny that last week's SNF game between the Patriots and Ravens had a playoff-like feel to it, as Baltimore was well prepared from the get-go and made a point to be the first NFL team to knock off New England since last December. More importantly though, that game cashed the 'over' play with relative ease, as it's now three straight weeks of essentially no doubt winners for this piece. You never want to get too cocky in your approach though as that's typically when the bounces start going against you.

Speaking of that, this week's SNF game features the Dallas Cowboys in prime time for the second straight week, as apparently the DB's on the Cowboys feel like their teammates on the special teams units need all the reps they can get. For someone like myself who was holding an 'under' ticket on MNF, to see that strip sack fumble scoop and score with less then 30 seconds was crushing. Had the Dallas DB simply fallen on the ball, it would have been one knee and the game was over.

Instead, he subjected his teammates (and himself) to run nearly the length of the field for the TD (and celebration) forced the extra point team to go out there and taken another hit, and the same with the kickoff team as well. Obviously it is what it is, but when you are on the wrong side of those bounces you think of things in that light and how the guy should have done something differently. But at the same time, him having a scoop and score TD in his stats – no matter the time of game – is something that can help him earn a few more dollars on a potential next contract so it's important to look at both sides of the coin, and as I like to say, “context matters.”

This week the Cowboys are back at home and hosting a Minnesota team that coughed up a late lead in KC last week. The Vikings have to still be having some buyer's remorse feelings with QB Kirk Cousins and his passing ability, but at 6-3 SU everything's still out in front of him. Can he and his teammates bounce back yet again – they are 2-0 SU and ATS when coming off a SU loss this year – or will the Cowboys keep on cashing tickets in their third straight prime time appearance?

Total Talk

This number has held steady at it's opening status of 48 all week, and to me, there isn't really a discernible way to approach this total from either perspective. Yes, going 'over' the total has worked out for these SNF games the past two weeks after the run of 'unders' we had to start the year, but that also doesn't mean we are going to get a nice streak of 'overs' going forward either.

And while the scoop and score late TD by Dallas last week was painful for 'under' bettors like myself, truth be told the 'over' in that game was the right side to be on. There were missed FG's early, both teams settled for too many FG's (especially New York) early, and it really was an up-and-down game for the entirety. Obviously Minnesota's defense brings much more resistance to this game then what the Giants defense has, and you've got to take that into consideration, but with Dallas putting up 37 points in consecutive weeks, do they really cool off that much? Yes, those point totals by the Cowboys were largely aided by turnovers and that's unlikely to continue at a similar pace, and coming off two consecutive division games should dull the intensity from the Dallas perspective, but both sides have cashed 'over' tickets in three of their last four games respectively as well.

Generally speaking, when both sides are coming off the same total result like Minnesota and Dallas are with 'overs' this week, I do like to look the other way, and if forced to make a play on this total, it would be on the low side of this total. And while it's never good to let past results creep into influencing your future bets, there probably is some residue left on my brain from the way last week's 'under' in the Dallas game finished in terms of me wanting to pull the trigger on it again this week. That would be the only way I'd look on this total, but sometimes a “bet saved is as good as money made,” and passing on this total is the end result.
 
Side Spiel

Just like the total, this point spread has held steady at it's original number of Dallas (-3) for the majority of the week. You do tend to hear/read more support for the Vikings as there are plenty in the industry who like to quote Minnesota's ATS record in the Mike Zimmer era (57-34-1 ATS) and as an underdog (22-14 ATS). Both of those numbers sit at over a 60% cash rate and that's definitely better then good in this business. Zimmer's Vikings have not failed to cover the number three times in a row during the regular season since late-October through early-November of 2016, and coming off two failed covers, that does appear to make sense to some degree here.

Adding support to that argument is the case that Dallas is off of two consecutive division games which is always theorized as a potential 'letdown' spot, and Dallas just continues to have plenty of detractors in general. A very soft schedule plays into that as the only winning teams currently that they've faced this year are New Orleans, Green Bay, and Philly, and the Cowboys went 1-2 SU and ATS in those games respectively. So that's the general consensus it seems in the market this week that Dallas is in another great spot to be bet against, but I'm not so sure that's the case.

For one, while those same Zimmer supporters are likely to fall on the side of ripping/questioning Dallas HC Jason Garrett's skills at his job – which at times do deserve to be questioned – I believe they are missing a huge chunk of the bigger picture in terms of how they view Zimmer. That's because for years I've always had a tough time backing any coach that comes from the Marvin Lewis coaching tree.

Lewis was a guy in Cincinnati who was as predictable as they come in offensive play calling – run or take a deep shot on 1st down, run on 2nd down, and then throw it over the middle to possession receiver on 3rd and medium/long – and always took the conservative approach when in doubt. It's why his Bengals teams were almost always doomed to mediocrity, and those coaches that stem from his coaching tree have similar tendencies. Minnesota falls right into that category this year, as they are so reliant on the success of RB like Dalvin Cook – who the Chiefs essentially sold out to stop last week.

For whatever reason, Marvin Lewis disciples tend to always be great interviewers in that they get the head coaching jobs, but turn out to be suspect head coaches to say the least. The list of coaches on Marvin's coaching tree includes the already fired Jay Gruden (Washington), Hue Jackson, Vance Joseph, Mike Zimmer, and the Vikings head coach before Zimmer in Leslie Frazier.

I'm not sure why the Vikings kept going back to the Bengals coordinator well, but here they are, and like all those years where Marvin kept his Bengals job for far too long (he should have been let go amid the early stages of all those consecutive playoff losses), Zimmer's done just enough in Minnesota to keep his job for another year seemingly every season so far.

Zimmer's doing his best to break away from this disastrous coaching tree with those long term ATS results, and from a market perspective you can't argue with those long term numbers. But is ATS record when catching 3 points or less is 0-4 SU and ATS since the beginning of last year – the start of the Kirk Cousins era - as just like his mentor Marvin Lewis, he can't win the 'big' or close games.

Dallas may have their own issues with Garrett and what he brings to the table, but context always matters, and everyone just prefers to overlook Zimmer and the Vikings recent history in these projected close games to opt for the overall ATS results as support. Remember, during those playoff seasons for Marvin Lewis' Bengals, Cincinnati always took care of business against the teams they should have, and could never get over the hump against equal or better competition like the Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Chargers etc. And you could say that's been the case for all of those coaches that stem from the Lewis coaching tree. Win the games you are supposed to, and choke in the games that are coin flips.

In the end, Zimmer is no different, and Minnesota ranks 31st in the league in passing completions per game (19.3). The only team that's worse then that are the Washington Redskins, who wouldn't you know it, started the year with the aforementioned Lewis disciple Jay Gruden. Are you starting to see the pattern yet?

Final Thoughts

Expressions like “the apple doesn't fall too far from the tree” always have some element of truth to them even when misapplied. That's how I view Mike Zimmer and his coaching prowess, and I just don't see how you can back the Vikings against any team that's got a winning record if they aren't catching upwards of +4.5 points or more. Bettors will comment on how soft the Cowboys schedule has been, but when Minnesota's got wins over Atlanta, Oakland, NY Giants, Philly, Detroit, and Washington, how much better is there resume really? My thoughts on Philly were well laid out a few weeks ago when Dallas last had a SNF game, and every other team there has a losing (or .500) record currently as well.

I don't know what it is about the Cowboys this year in that it's seemingly impossible for them to earn a level of respect from the markets they definitely deserve. Maybe it's that loss to the Jets that still sticks out in everyone's mind that's leaving plenty of residue on their thought process in terms of even considering backing the Cowboys. Who knows? But I'll gladly take advantage of that perception when it fits.

But just like two weeks ago when the Cowboys were laying this number at home against the Eagles, this number against the Vikings is still rather short. The Cowboys defense should be able to gear up to eliminate RB Dalvin Cook from finding significant success like the Chiefs did, and go on to win this game with relative ease like they did vs Philly. Maybe then we will start to see Dallas getting some respect from more in this industry going forward.
 
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