Ozzy
Well-known member
TNF, SNF and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL (citation: vsin, public data)
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday NIGHT games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played ON SUNDAY NIGHT, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday & Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA ATS
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
Thursday
Vikings (0-1) @ Eagles (1-0)
— Short week, fairly long travel for Vikings.
— Last six years, Vikings are 0-5-1 SU/0-6 ATS in road openers.
— Since 2016, Vikings are 12-18 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last week, Minnesota ran ball 17 times for only 41 yards.
— Vikings outgained Tampa 369-242 LW, but lost 20-17.
— Minnesota was in red zone three times LW, scored only 10 points.
— Cousins is 73-67-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— Under is 13-6 in Minnesota’s last 19 road openers.
— Eagles scored defensive TD, held on late for 25-20 win in Foxboro LW.
— Philly was outgained 382-251; they went 3/out on 5 of 11 drives.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 26-13 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 9-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Eagles are 5-9 SU/4-10 ATS in last 14 home openers.
— Hurts is 26-13 as an NFL starter.
— Under Sirianni, over is 12-5 in Eagle home games.
— Eagles lost both coordinators to HC jobs after last season.
— Minnesota won four of last six series games.
— Home side won five of last six meetings.
— Vikings lost three of last four visits here, losing by 17-24-11 points.
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday NIGHT games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played ON SUNDAY NIGHT, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday & Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
- Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 26-21 SU and 30-16-1 ATS (65.2%) in the last 47.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
- There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 16-15 SU but 8-22-1 ATS (26.7%). However, home-field advantage has picked up slightly in the second half of the season in recent years, with week 9-17 home teams going 14-17 SU and 15-18 ATS (75%) in that same time span. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 30-23 SU and 31-20-2 ATS (60.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA ATS
- NFL Home Favorites of 7 points or more are on a 26-2 SU and 19-7-2 ATS (73.1%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA
- There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 14-12 SU and 19-6-1 ATS (76%) record.
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA ATS
Thursday
Vikings (0-1) @ Eagles (1-0)
— Short week, fairly long travel for Vikings.
— Last six years, Vikings are 0-5-1 SU/0-6 ATS in road openers.
— Since 2016, Vikings are 12-18 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last week, Minnesota ran ball 17 times for only 41 yards.
— Vikings outgained Tampa 369-242 LW, but lost 20-17.
— Minnesota was in red zone three times LW, scored only 10 points.
— Cousins is 73-67-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— Under is 13-6 in Minnesota’s last 19 road openers.
— Eagles scored defensive TD, held on late for 25-20 win in Foxboro LW.
— Philly was outgained 382-251; they went 3/out on 5 of 11 drives.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 26-13 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 9-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Eagles are 5-9 SU/4-10 ATS in last 14 home openers.
— Hurts is 26-13 as an NFL starter.
— Under Sirianni, over is 12-5 in Eagle home games.
— Eagles lost both coordinators to HC jobs after last season.
— Minnesota won four of last six series games.
— Home side won five of last six meetings.
— Vikings lost three of last four visits here, losing by 17-24-11 points.
