By Greg Dempson
By Greg Dempson
Quintana gets the start for the White Sox tonight and he’s been solid all season especially if you bet his starts under the total, (04–11,) to the UNDER when facing Cleveland as well as 3–8–1 to the under at home plus 07–20–01 to the UNDER in his 28 starts. When pitching vs. the Indians his ERA is 2.88, WHIP of 1.185. At home he boasts a solid ERA of 2.92, WHIP of 0.948. His last three starts has been a concern though, ERA of 5.58, WHIP of 1.189 through 19.3 innings while allowing 12 earned, (including 3 homers,) 3 walks and 23 strikeouts.
Trevor Bauer gets the call for Cleveland. Bauer has an ERA of 3.93, WHIP of 1.275 on the season going 07–14–03 to the UNDER as well as a road ERA of 3.41, WHIP of 1.368 while going 1–7–2 to the UNDER away from home. Bauer/Team is 6–2 on the money line vs. the White Sox and his ERA is 3.21, WHIP of 1.280. Six of his eight starts vs. Chicago have stayed under the total. Bauer is also 02–19 to the under in road games the past two seasons. Bauer is also 01–14 to the under as a rod dog of +100 or higher the past two seasons. I do like the under tonight but I feel the money line underdog is the stronger of the two plays.
My Every Edge MLB record is 30–22–02 while producing a profit of more than 14-units as many of the winners were underdogs.
The First 5 Innings
- When reviewing the first 5 innings with starter vs. starter Quintana’s most recent three against Cleveland produced scores of 5–0, 2–2 and 1–1 while he went 1–0–2 on the money line.
- When reviewing Bauer’s most recent three starts vs. the White Sox his first 5 innings scores were 2–0, 1–1 and 3–0 for Cleveland. He went 2–0–1 vs. the money line. With Quintana’s recent woes in his last three starts and coupled with Bauer’s success vs. the White Sox with a record of 6 – 2 I like the road team this evening supported by the following angles along with a winning system.
- The Indians are +23.0-units against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.
- Quintana is 11–21 and -13.20-units against the money line vs. division opponents the last two seasons.
- Cleveland is 9–4 vs. the White Sox this season.
- Play on road teams winning between 54% to 62% of their games on the season when revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a road favorite of -150 or more. This system is 69–34 = 67% the past five seasons when playing on Cleveland.
Indians vs White Sox Pick
My Every Edge selection is on the Cleveland Indians in the first 5 innings at +115.