Jaguars at Bears Pick

By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: Jacksonville +1.5 at Chicago -1.5 Total 46

With the injury to Jay Cutler’s thumb, former Texan quarterback Brian Hoyer has been able to air it out, but with limited success in the win column in his three starts. Hoyer’s thrown for 300+ yards in those three starts, losing (17–31) at Dallas, winning at home (17–14,) against the Lions and losing last week at Indianapolis, (23–29.)

The Bears did have an opportunity to win last week vs. the Colts, as they trailed by 3, but…a late fumble that was recovered by Indy eventually resulted in an additional field goal and a 6 point Chicago loss. Hoyer has completed 71.1% of his passes for 1,016 yards, tossing 6 touchdowns and no interceptions in those starts.

Jacksonville has allowed 38 and 27 points when away from home this season, losing (38–14,) at San Diego while winning at London vs. the Colts, (30–27.) Blake Bortles has completed 61.3% of his passes for 1,050 yards, with 7 touchdowns but 6 interceptions in four games. Bortles/Jags are an over team with him calling signals as the team went 10–6 to the over last season and they are 3–1 to the over this season.

In Review

My last selection was a winner as San Diego and Oakland sailed well over the total improving my EE record to 7–1 ATS in the preseason and regular season.

Over–Achieving

The Jaguars are 6–1 to the over in their last six when off a division win.
The Bears are 9–0 to the over when facing an opponent that’s coming off a bye week while the Jaguars have sailed over in three out of their last four games when playing off a bye week.
Jacksonville is 10–02 to the over when on the road and playing on a natural grass surface.
In limited play, Chicago and Jacksonville are – 2 to the over.
In 15 games played with a line in this range, the Jaguars are averaging 24.5 PPG while allowing 25.4 PPG a combined average of 49.9 PPG.

Over–Coached

Bears coach John Fox is 29–14 to the OVER and +13.60-units after gaining 300 or more passing yards in the teams’ last game in all games he has coached.
Jaguars coach Bradley is 11–02 to the over in non conference games as their head coach.

Sunday’s System

When the over/under is between 42.5 to 49 points, play road teams with a completion percentage of 60% or better to sail over the total when the O/U is between 42.5 and 49 points, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in two straight games. This system is 68–34 = 67% to the over since 1983.

My Every Edge selection for this week is to take the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Chicago Bears over the total of 45.5 points.

Jaguars at Bears Pick – Leaping The Total