By Greg Dempson
Pinnacle Odds: Kansas State +3.5 at West Virginia -3.5 Total 54
Since West Virginia joined the BIG–12, their record vs. the Kansas State Wildcats has been anything but “BIG” as the “Mounties” are 1–3 straight up and 0–4 ATS.
Kansas State’s head coach Bill Snyder is 16–05 ATS as an away dog while winning eight of those contests outright. At this juncture of the season the Wildcats enter this game off “a ½ a bye,” as last week’s game vs. cupcake Missouri State was called at half-time due to lightning…as the “Cats went wild,” at half-time, (35–00.)
Kansas State has played but one road game, at Stanford, a straight up and ATS loss, (26–13.) Kansas State out yarded Stanford, 335 to 272 yards in that game with Stanford getting a late touchdown and the cover.
Last week the Mountaineers hosted what was perceived to be an anemic BYU offense, as the Cougars entered last week’s game off three games where they failed to top 20 points, they scored 18 vs. Arizona, 19 against Utah and 14 at home against UCLA. At Morgantown the Cougars covered while scoring 32 points in a (35–32,) loss while out gaining West Virginia in total yards, 521–481.
In Review
· My selection on the Gators lost last week as Florida was drinking “Kool-Aid” in the second half while the Volunteers were drinking “Gator-Aid!” My Every Edge College selections are 2–2 ATS this season.
Coaches Corner
· Head coach Snyder is 42–17 ATS an +23.30-units vs. conference opponents as well as 21–06 ATS in the month of October.
· Head coach Holgorsen is 03–11 ATS and -9.10-units after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.
· Snyder is 25–14 ATS vs. teams averaging 425 or more yards per game as their head coach.
· Holgosen is 10–25 ATS and -17.50-units vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.
Winning Statistical Angles
· The Mountaineers are on an 0–7 ATS run when favored at home by –8.5 or less points.
· Kansas State is efficient in the Red Zone having scored on all 16 drives this season.
· West Virginia is 06–20 ATS in their last 26 home games when playing against a team with a winning road record.
· The Wildcats have a definite edge in special teams and they’re also 9-1 ATS vs. poor punt return teams that average less than 7.5 yards per return.
· The Mountaineers are 09–22 ATS and -15.20-units versus excellent defensive teams that allow 4.25 or less yards per play.
· West Virginia allowed 180 yards rushing vs. Missouri, 185 against Youngstown State and vs. BYU they were torched for 280 yards on the ground.
All Systems Go
· Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards per carry after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. This system is 30–08 = 79% ATS the past five seasons.
· After gaining 6 or more rushing yards per attempt in their last game, play on road underdogs in a game involving two excellent rushing teams that each average 4.8 yards per rush after gaining 6 or more rushing yards per attempt in their last game. This system is on a 4–0 ATS streak and also 69–30 = 70% ATS the past 10 seasons.