The first leg of this year’s US Triple Crown goes Saturday at Churchill Downs race track in Louisville, Kentucky. Post positions will be drawn this evening but sportsbooks have already posted their 2012 Kentucky Derby odds on the race and we sort through the field with betting tips to help with early picks
They say it’s the most exciting two minutes in sports and Saturday, the 138th Run for the Roses will give sports betting types across the globe a good reason to yell at the TV with a Mint Julep in hand!
Union Rags (+436) has slipped into the early favorite’s role and given his early futures value of 3 to 1 odds; it might not be a bad play. Trainers say he’s taken nicely to the track this week and Union Rags was second to Hansen (+1486) here in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. A disappointing third place finish at the Florida Derby has some bettors skeptical but jockey Julien Leparoux is confident.
Take Charge Indy (+1678) was first in Florida and with Calvin Borel in charge, watch the odds on this horse to make a freefall with the right post. Borel rode Mine That Bird to a win in 2009 as a 50 to 1 longshot and backed it up with another trot to the winner’s circle in 2010 atop Super Saver.
Borel was 10th last year on Twice the Appeal and odds dipped from 15- down to 12 to 1 throughout the week leading up. The point is that if you are going to bet the jockey, you are probably better off grabbing the three-time Kentucky Derby champ soon rather than later.
ODDS ON PERSPECTIVE
The top horses at online sportsbooks are heavy chalk for a reason and they will receive the most attention this week from media but it’s always a good idea during Triple Crown betting to remember that favorites do not win every race. In fact the sometimes don’t even show.
In 2011, the favorite Nehro (6/1) did come second but Archarcharch (10/1) and Midnight Interlude (10/1) finished 15th and 16th respectively.
The winner, Animal Kingdom, was posted throughout the week with odds of 30 to 1 from the 16th post and as we mentioned above, Mine that Bird in 2009 was hardly a blip on the radar.
Betting Tip: Pay attention to the workouts at Churchill Downs this week, check the weather forecast and do some homework. Horses that have run this track before are always worth an extra look.
AT THE POST
Kentucky Derby post position draws will be held Wednesday at 5 pm ET and although horse racing experts will tell you that the Derby is not going to be won according to post position, it can most certainly be lost there. Here’s an inside look at the odds from Pinnacle Sports before the post positions. Check Pinnacle daily for updates
Who will Win The Kentucky Derby 2012?
1001 Bodemeister +509
1002 Union Rags +436
1003 Dullahan +1017
1004 Gemologist +783
1005 Creative Cause +1152
1006 I’ll Have Another +1424
1007 Alpha +1728
1008 Daddy Nose Best +1627
1009 Daddy Long Legs +2338
1010 Take Charge Indy +1678
1011 Hansen +1486
1012 El Padrino +2032
1014 Went The Day Well +2540
1015 Done Talking +2032
1016 Trinniberg +2540
1019 Sabercat +3455
1022 Liaison +4063
1023 Russian Greek +4063
1024 Prospective +4572
1025 Howe Great +4063
1026 Optimizer +4063
1027 Rousing Sermon +5081
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