MLB Pick: Getting The Royal Flush

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Kansas City Royals

By Greg Dempson

Bovada: Detroit Tigers -120 at Kansas City Royals +100 Total 7.5 O-125 U-105

Kansas City is now tied for the division lead with the Indians in the American League Central following their three game sweep vs. Cleveland. The Royals start Danny Duffy tonight. He has a record of 3–6 vs. the Tigers, (Duffy/Team at 5–6,) with an ERA of 2.95, WHIP of 1.156.

In his last three starts vs. Detroit, one in 2014 and two last season, Duffy has pitched a combined 20 innings in those three games he’s allowed 3 earned runs on 17 hits while walking 6, striking out 15 and allowing no home runs. One of those wins was in Detroit vs. Verlander, (5–1,) last August 4.

Duffy/Team has been roughed at home however going 2–1 with an ERA of 5.07 but he boasts a very respectable WHIP of 1.047. If he get into trouble and is pulled early, the Royals have a solid bullpen, (home ERA of 2.50, WHIP 1.250).

Duffy has definitely been better in his last three starts pitching a combined 18.3 innings allowing 5 earned runs on 15 hits while walking 3 while striking out 25 and allowing 3 home runs.

Justin Verlander has also turned things around of late with a road ERA of 4.38, WHIP of 1.051 pitching 39 innings in five starts with a record of 2–3 allowing 5 home runs, walking 10 and striking out 35.

Verlander is 20–07 vs. the Royals so this won’t be easy. I’m hoping the Royals can get to the Tigers bullpen as they have a pen with a road ERA of 4.76, WHIP of 1.464.

From the Batter’s Box

· The Royals are 7–0 and +8.10-units vs. the M/L in home games vs. an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season.

· The Tigers are 7–10 vs. lefties this season batting 0.250 in those 17 games.

· The Royals are on a 10 game winning streak at home

· Salvador Perez hit 3 home runs last night and he’s gone 13 for 28 with 4 home runs in his last 7 games. When facing Verlander, his career record is 21 for 44, that’s a stat I like.

· Since 1997, Detroit is -104.70-units against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less per game.

· This season Kansas City is 17–3 and +14.60-units against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs per game.

All Systems Go

· Play on American League home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season and playing against an American League opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season. This system is 58–32 = 64% since 1997. (I also have an additional system that’s +128.70-units when playing against the Tigers.

MLB Pick

My Thursday evening Every Edge selection for tonight is on the Kansas City Royals at +105 on the money line.

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