MLB Pick: Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals

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Pinnacle Odds: Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals

by Greg Dempson

The first pitch is scheduled for 7:15 ET at Kauffman Stadium as the Royals attempt to win back-to-back games for just the second time this season having defeated the Angels 7-1 Friday evening. The Angels started the season at 6-2 but they’ve dropped three in a row. As for Kansas City it has also been a slow start, the Royals began the season by playing three at Minnesota and swept by the Twins. They won two out of three at Houston and began a home stand dropping two out of three to Oakland before winning last night in the series opener vs. the Angels.

View From the Mound

  • The Angels are 0-5 in Shoemaker’s last five starts vs. the Royals and his ERA is 8.34 while his WHIP is 1.285. In his most recent two starts at Kansas City he has pitched a combined 7.7 innings while allowing 11 earned runs on 15 hits, (one of which was a home run,) while walking 4 and striking out only one batter. The Angels lost those two games 7-5 and 9-4.
  • Matt Shoemaker has not fared well with his two starts this season lasting a combined 9.3 innings while allowing 8 earned runs, (3 of which were homers,) while walking 5 and striking out 5 with both contests sailing over the total.
  • In Shoemaker’s last 11 games vs. the American League central the Angels are 03-11.
  • Kansas City starts Nate Karns for the second time this season, Karns pitched 5.7 innings at Houston on the 9th of April allowing one earned run, (a homer,) while walking two batters and striking out 3. They eventually lost that game (5-4) with the game sailing over the total. Karns/Team is 1-2 vs. the Angels and his ERA is 5.82, WHIP 1.647 with all three games sailing over the total.

Moving On Up

  • Karns is 15-05 to the OVER and +10.20-units at home when the total is 7 to 8.5runs averaging 9.5 runs per game.
  • Shoemaker is 4-1 to the OVER vs. the Royals with an average combined score of 30 runs in his last three starts.
  • Karns is 12-02 to the OVER and +10.20-units in night home games with combined scores that average 9.9 runs per game.
  • Kansas City is 16-06-01 to the over when their opposing pitcher has a WHIP greater than 1.3000.
  • Shoemaker is 5-1 to the OVER in his last six starts.
  • The Royals have continued their team success when scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game as they are 36-17-04 to the OVER.

An On the Up and Up System

  • Play home teams over the total when the O/U is 7 to 8.5 runs when backed by a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season and they’re playing against an opponent with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season.This system is 206-128 = 62% to the over the past five seasons and +72.40-units.

Behind Home Plate

  • Ed Hickox is tonight’s home plate umpire and he is 12-06 OVER the past two seasons when calling balls and strikes in American League games.
  • Hickox is also 16-09-01 to the over when two righties face one another averaging 9.8 runs per game the past two seasons.

Everyedge in Review

  • My two Tuesday selections on the Rangers split and I am now 1-3 at EE with my 2016 MLB picks and -2.14-units.

MLB Pick

Onto this evening’s selection, I have invested on the Angels and Royals to sail over the total of 8.5 runs at -110.