MLB Pick: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers

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Pinnacle Odds: New York Mets -105 at Milwaukee Brewers -103 Total 9 

by Greg Dempson

If you reside in Canada then you are probably aware of Harvey’s, a fast food chain that serves up grilled burgers, etc. Their slogan is, “Harvey’s makes you hamburger a beautiful thing.”

Harvey’s burgers may or may not be a beautiful thing but one situation that isn’t a beautiful thing is the pitching of Matt Harvey. The Mets start Harvey for the seventh time and he’s certainly had control issues, especially in his last three starts as his ERA is 8.10 with a WHIP of 1.621 through 16.7 innings.

He has allowed 15 earned runs in that span on only 17 hits. On the surface it might seem unusual to allow 15 earned on 17 hits but the reason for his bloated ERA is simple, he has 5 strikeouts vs. 10 walks while allowing 4 home runs.

Harvey hasn’t pitched since May 2 due to a suspension by the Mets. Incidentally, with nine or more days of rest Harvey is 4-0 to the over.

He has faced Milwaukee but once, on June 10 of last year, and he pitched a gem allowing one earned run through 6 innings on 2 hits while striking out 8 vs. 2 walks.
Matt Garza is on the mound for the Brewers and he is off to a fine start this season boasting a home ERA of 3.37, WHIP of 1.218 in two home starts pitching 10.7 innings allowing only 4 earned runs on 10 hits, (2 homers,) while striking out 11 vs. 3 walks. Garza/Team is 2-2 vs. the Mets with his ERA at 4.97, WHIP of 1.224 with the over cashing at 3-1.

“Matt-er Up”

· Matt Garza is 16-05 to the over when the money line is + or -125.
· Matt Harvey is 15-05-01 to the over after allowing 5 or more runs in his last start.
· Matt Garza is 12-02-02 to the over at home when pitching vs. a team with a losing record.
· Matt Harvey is 5-1-1 to the over in his last 7 starts.
· The Mets are 9-3-1 to the over on the road this season.
· The Brewers are 14-05 to the over at home this season
· The Mets are 18-03 to the over in night games this season.
· Milwaukee is 15-05 to the over vs. an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
· The Mets are 9-0 to the over this season after winning two out of their last three games.
On the Up and Up System
· When the O/U is between 8.5 to 10 runs, play the over when a team is batting .250 or less, (applies to the Mets,) and playing against an excellent starting National League pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or lower and he’s matched up against a cold starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or higher in his last three starts. This system is 34-08 = 81% when playing the OVER since 1997. in Review

· My last MLB offering had a late pitching change on the Padres and Dodgers.  I’m 4-6 with my MLB selections for this season and -1.66 units.

MLB Pick

My selection on this game is for the Mets/Brewers to sail over the total of 9 runs @ -105.