MLB Pick: New York Mets at Washington Nationals

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Pinnacle Odds: New York Mets at Washington Nationals

by Greg Dempson

The Mets were picked by many to finish first in their division. They are not off to a great but with a season than has a NFL type schedule almost every day of the week, it is indeed a L-O-N-G season.

They won the first game, (7-5,) of this three game series while playing without left fielder slugger Yoenis Cespedes, who has been placed on the 10 say disabled list. The Nationals lost with Max Scherzer on the mound last night and in this 1:05 ET start they hand the ball to ace Stephen Strasburg who has fared well vs. the Mets going 7-3, (he and the team at 9-3,) with an ERA of 2.53 and a WHIP of 1.045.

The Mets starter Zach Wheeler has pitched well this season but he has not fared well vs. the Nationals as he has a career record of 2-7 when starting against with an ERA of 4.75 and a WHIP of 1.377.

All That “Straz”

  • Nationals starter Strasburg is 18-07 to the OVER as a favorite of -110 or higher the last two seasons winning by an average combined score of 6.2 vs. their opponents averaging 3.7 runs.
  • Strasburg is also 12-03 to the OVER in home games the last 2 seasons with the average score being Nationals 5.8 vs. opponents 3.9.
  • The Nationals/Strasburg are 18-09 to the OVER in all games the last two seasons winning by an average score of 6.0 vs. opponents at 3.5 runs.
  • Strasburg/Team is also 17-07 to the OVER in day games the last three seasons with the average score being Nationals 5.8 vs. opponents at 3.9.

Whip It, (Post 5 Innings DEVOtion!)

  • As the punk rock group Devo once sang, “Whip It, Whip It Good!” This could pertain to the post 5 innings score. Usually a National League teams’ bullpen has a good WHIP, (especially if they are a contender.) Such is not the case with either team as the Mets have a bullpen with a road WHIP of 1.602 while the Nationals have a home bullpen WHIP of 1.446. Strasburg has started four games and pitched exactly 28 innings so their bullpen comes into play after 7 innings.
  • As for the Mets, their starter has pitched a combined 21.7 innings in four stars for an average of 5.4 innings per game.

John Tumpane  

  • John Tumpane is today’s home plate umpire. In the past three seasons when two righties face one another the average runs scored in the past three seasons is 9.0 runs.
  • When calling balls and strikes in National League games the past three seasons the average runs scored per game is 9.2. in Review 

  • With the Giants win at +110 with my last offering at EE I’m now 4-5 with my MLB selections for this season and -0.46-units.

MLB Pick 

I have an official selection on today’s game as well as two Everyedge opinions.

My official selection is to take the under at 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings at -120.

I also offer up an opinion on the over 8 runs at -110. and a stronger opinion on the Nationals team total over 4.5 runs at -110.

NOTE: If the first 5 innings is low scoring at 4 runs or less, I would consider betting the game over the total depending on the number the books post up. Keep in mind the bullpens are not solid.