by Greg Dempson
Bovada: St. Louis Cardinals -170 at Cincinnati Reds +150 Total 9.5 O-115 U-115
The first two games in this series have produced 32 combined runs. Will tonight’s game be a low scoring affair? I’m betting that it will not.
Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cardinals and he has lost more times to the Reds, (10,) than any other team he has faced. His ERA is 4.62, WHIP 1.313. He faced the Reds in April of this season and was lit up for 7 earned runs in 5.3 innings at Bush Stadium, (a 9–8 loss.) Wainwright has allowed 25 earned runs in 33.4 innings during his six road starts, (4–2 to the over,) with an ERA of 6.55, (WHIP = 1.573.)
The Reds hand the ball to leftie Brandon Finnegan who has a home ERA of 4.64 while averaging 5.5 innings per start. In those six starts he has allowed 8 home runs and the team is 4–1–1 to the over. Finnegan has walked 34 batters in 69.3 innings pitched this season and he’s walked at least three batters in eight of his 12 starts.
Reds Light it up District
· The Reds are lighting it up as they’ve scored 54 runs in their last 7 games and they have 27 hits in the first two games of the series vs. the Cardinals.
· The Cardinals feast off left handed pitching averaging 5.6 RPG with 11 overs vs. 4 unders while hitting 15 home runs in those 15 games.
· Cincinnati is 29–12 to the over vs. righties.
· St. Louis is 20–8 to the over as a favorite of –125 to –175 this season.
· The Reds have a bullpen that’s full of bull, they’ve allowed 23 home runs in 31 home games with an ERA of 6.08, WHIP 1.553 at home.
· The Cardinals are 20–8 to the over vs. an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
· Cincinnati allows an average of 6.6 runs per game at home this season.
Umpire Jerry Meals
· Meals is a bonafied over umpire, when a rightie faces a leftie, and Jerry’s calling balls and strikes, the total is 17–9–1 to the over with an average combined score of 10.2 runs per game the past three seasons.
· Meals is on a run of 18–8–4 to the over in National League games the past three seasons.
· This season, in 10 home plate appearances, he is 8–1–1 to the over while averaging 13.5 RPG in his last six behind home plate.
· St. Louis is 8–2 to the over in their last 10 with Meals behind home plate averaging a combined 10.6 RPG.
· Cincinnati is 7–2–1 to the over when Meals is calling balls and strikes averaging a combined 9.9 RPG.
· Meals is 21–5–1 to the over in his last 27 Thursday games.
MLB Pick
This one should be over faster than a 21 year old males first visit to the Mustang Ranch, my Every Edge selection for tonight is on the Cardinals and Reds to sail over 9.0 runs -120 which is what I invested. (This total has moved overnight to over 9.5 at +100 at many books. I suggest a split wager on over 9 runs –130 and over 9.5 runs at +100 to average your ‘vig” down to –115.)
For additional winning selections, systems and tweets visit www.gregdempson.com.