MLB Pick: Road Warrior

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By Greg Dempson

Bodog: Texas Rangers +107 at Seattle Mariners -117 Total 7.5 O-105 U-115

In this afternoon contest the first pitch is slate for 4:10 ET. Jason Hamels starts for a second time this season vs. the Mariners as he pitched and won vs. the Mariners at home on April 4th by a score of 3–2.

In that contest he went 7 innings allowing 2 earned runs, which were both homers, on 4 hits while walking 3 and striking out 8. Hamels is 4–2 in 7 starts vs. Seattle with an ERA of 3.77, WHIP of 1.396. In three starts since September of 2015 he’s pitched exactly 7 innings per start allowing 7 earned combined earned runs on 19 hits, 3 home runs while walking 4 vs. 23 strikeouts.

His opponent is leftie Wade Miley who has an overall ERA of 5.27, WHIP 1.38 with a record of 6–2. Miley has been the recipient of tremendous run support in his last three starts as the mariners have scored, 7, 16 and 5 runs while his ERA has been less than impressive in those three at 8.04, WHIP of 1.914 through 15.7 innings while 14 earned runs.

Lifetime vs. the Rangers is 1 – 3, ERA of 5.58, WHIP of 1.304 with two starts this season, losing 8 – 0 at home while winning 9 – 5 at Texas and losing 8–0 at Arlington last year. In those three starts he went 16 combined innings allowing 26 hits, 2 homers while walking 2 and striking out 16.

Hamels on the road vs. Miley at Home
· Hamels is 3–0 in five road starts with an ERA of 3.08, WHIP of 1.047 while averaging 6.9 innings per start. Hamels has allowed 8 earned runs in 34.8 innings serving up 5 home runs on 25 hits, walking 12 and striking out 35.

· Miley is 3–1 at home with an ERA of 4.22, WHIP of 1.125 pitching an average of 6.4 innings per start allowing 15 earned including 7 home runs while walking 7 and striking out 26.
Batting vs. Lefties

· The Rangers average 4.8 RPG vs. lefties and are 10–8 this season.

· The Mariners average 3.9 RPG, their lowest output for the season, and are 9–11 vs. lefties including 1–5 in their last six.
Recent Form for Each Team

· Seattle is 11–20 against the money line at home with a line of –100 to –125 the last two seasons.

· Texas is 26–16 and +18.20-units against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season

· The Mariners are -32.30-units vs. the money line in home games the past two seasons.

· The Rangers are 22–12 and +13.70-units vs. the money line when playing against division opponents this season.

· Seattle is 11–17 vs. the money line this season as a home favorite of –110 or higher and -32.30-units vs. the M/L at home the last two seasons.

· Texas is 61–38 and +39.60-units against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record the last two seasons.

· Miley gave up 11 total runs in two starts against Texas in the opening two weeks of the season.

· Hamels is 27–13 and +14.60-units against the money line vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game the past two seasons.

· Play against all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher that bat .265 or lower when playing against a good starting American League pitcher whose 4.20 or lower vs. an American League starting pitcher, (Miley,) whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season. This system is 86–55 = 61% the past five seasons and +49.50-units.

· When backing underdog American League teams of +100 or higher with a starter whose ERA is 4.20 or better vs. an AL pitcher whose WHIP is between 1.300 to 1.400 for the season the underdog is +64.80-units on the money line the past five seasons.

MLB Pick

My Every Edge Sunday offering is on the Texas Rangers at +110 on the money line.