MLB Pick: Sliding Under with Mets Brewers

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By Greg Dempson

Bovada: New York Mets -123 at Milwaukee Brewers -113 Total 8.5 O-125 U+105

It’s Miller Time tonight in the second contest of a four game series as the Brewers host the Mets with the first pitch slated for 8:10 ET. The Mets hand the ball to Matt Harvey and this will be his first start against Milwaukee.

Only one batter in tonight’s line-up has previous plate appearances against him, Aaron Hill. In nine at bats vs. Harvey, Hill is 3 for 9. Matt has cooled off opposing bats, pitching 14 innings in his last two starts allowing 1 run on 6 hits while striking out 9 vs. 1 walk. Harvey is 2–4 to the under s. teams with a losing record.

The Brewers send Junior Guerra to the mound and this will be his first start against the Mets. Guerra has allowed 3 or less earned runs in each of his last five outings and pitched at least 6 innings in six of his seven starts this season. He has an ERA 3.55 in four home starts going 3–1 with a WHIP of 1.105 and 1–3 to the under.

The First 5 Innings

· I’ve decided on a first 5 innings play on tonight’s total as Milwaukee’s bullpen has a home ERA of 5.28.

· Since it is each batters first start vs. their opponent, I’m hoping they can get throught the first few innings unscathed with a minimum amount of runs scored.

· The Brewers are +18.20-units of profit when playing the under in home games vs. an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse.

· The Mets and Brewers are 4–12 to the under in their last 16 games, 7–18–1 under in their last 26 and 1–7 to the under in Milwaukee.

Van–Over is an Under Ump

· Home plate umpire Larry Vanover has seen the Brewers stay under in 7 out of the last 8 when he’s calling balls and strikes, 0–5 to the under in Milwaukee’s last five at home.

· In games involving the Mets he’s called 2 overs vs. 5 unders when they are on the road with their most recent road game at Milwaukee staying under the total, (3–2.)

· He is 1–3–1 to the under in five National League contests this season and in the past two seasons his strikeout to walk ratio is 2.24 walking 6.7 batters per game vs. 14.9 strikeouts per contest. His average combined runs per 9 innings is 8.1.

· When two righties face on another he’s 13–20–02 to the under for 66.7% the past two seasons averaging 7.7 RPG, walking 6.3 batters per 9 innings while calling 17.9 strikeouts.

My EveryEdge Record
· I’m 12 –3 with the Every Edge postings this season and my three loses were at –105, +134 and –120 and all 15 games have been underdogs or favorites of –120 or lower and I will continue with the same approach at Every Edge and my web site as you will not win in the long run when playing big favorites in baseball or the NHL.

MLB Pick

I have invested on the Mets/Brewers to stay under 4.5 runs at –115 in the first 5 innings, good winning!

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