MLB Playoffs – Cubs at Giants Pick

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San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner


By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: Chicago Cubs -105 at San Francisco -103 Giants Total 6

The Giants advanced to the post season with a frantic final weekend rally vs. their arch rival division foes, the LA Dodgers, and then continued their quest towards another World Series title with a (3–0) Wild Card win at Citi Field last Wednesday vs. the Mets.

Will they be able to extend their season to a fourth game vs. Cubs in this best out of 5 series?

You couldn’t ask for a better starter in this elimination contest than Madison Bumgarner. In his last three win or go home starts, Bumgarner has pitched 23 scoreless innings. In 12 starts vs. the Cubs Bumgarner is 8–2 with an ERA of 2.25, WHIP of 1.025 while going 2–0 this season and posting an ERA of 1.32 with 16 strikeouts in 13.3 innings. Bumgarner was solid at home with a record 9–4, ERA of 2.22, WHIP of 0.935 through 117.7 innings allowing only 7 home runs, 29 earned runs while striking out 124 vs. 28 walks.

The Cubs send Jake Arrieta to the mound, he is 4–2 vs. the Giants with an ERA of 1.81, WHIP of 0.907. He has not pitched well in his most recent three starts however posting an ERA of 5.00, WHIP of 1.444 through 18 combined innings.

In Review

  • My last offering on the Blue Jays at +133 on the money line was a winner, I’m 2–0 in the post season and +2.33-units.

Show Me the Money

  • The Cubs are -12.10-units this season vs. the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control, walking less than 1.75 batters.
  • The Giants are on a 9–0 winning streak when facing elimination.
  • The Cubs are 3–6 in their last nine games at AT&T Park.
  • San Francisco is +11.0-units against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits per start this season.
  • Home plate umpire Larry Vanover is a solid home plate umpire as the host team is 10–01.

All Systems Go

  • Play on home teams winning 51% to 54% of their games, with a money line of -100 to -150, off two or more consecutive losses and playing a winning team are 264–144 = 64.7% vs. the money line since 1997 and +85.60-units.
  • Play against teams winning 62% or more of their games when the money line is + or –125 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and now playing a team with a winning record. This system is 103–60 = 63% the past five seasons +40.50-units.
  • Cubs money has moved this money line from –125 down to –104 as of this report. I’ll back the better pitcher and hope for a strong outing from Bumgarner.

Cubs at Giants Pick

My Every Edge selection for this evening is on the San Francisco Giants at –104 on the money line.


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