Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints

drew brees monday night

Drew Brees attempted 42 passes in the Saints home opener, finishing with 423 yards and four touchdowns

By Pick Sixty Sports

The Atlanta Falcons fly into New Orleans Monday for a huge NFC South divisional showdown with the Saints.


Odds: Saints -2 and O/U 54

Atlanta is coming off a 35-28 road win in Oakland that followed their opening week loss to Tampa Bay. The team is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in its past six road games off a road win and their D held five of those six teams to 22 points or less but the most recent game in that string was a year ago in Dallas. The Falcons were off 24-20 win vs. the Giants and kept their season opening hot streak alive with a 39-28 win over the Cowboys. This game feels more like a fireworks show than a defensive battle and public sentiment is driving the total to 54.5 with some books (and it’s still early).

New Orleans held the Giants to just 16 points in last week’s road loss but they also gave up 35 in Week 1 to Oakland. It’s tough knowing what to expect from this defense but we have to anticipate big things out of Drew Brees and the offense. As a favorite of -7 or less off a loss, Sean Payton is 9-1 SU/ATS vs. .500 or better teams, his offense averaging 32 point per contest. New Orleans is 18-5 ATS in this spot since 2008 but two of those losses were in 2012, when Sean Payton was suspended for Bountygate.

Atlanta is 1-4 SU/ATS its past five visits to the Superdome and those games averaged exactly 51 points (2-2-1 O/U). Tonight marks the 10-year anniversary since this city reopened its football stadium after Katrina and the emotion will be as high as it always is — and has been — for every big game along the way.

New Orleans is 0-2 SU for the third-straight season but last week marks the first time in those opening two-game sets that the D held their opponent to less than 26 points. It creates a sense of optimism but we need to see some consistency with this team on both sides of the ball before we start laying points. I’ve got a lean to Atlanta but the +3’s from early in the week are gone. My plan is let this total go for a run and then bet it the other way. Teams that give up 30-plus one week and then hold an opponent to less than 20 the next week (Saints) are a risky play and of the past 35, only four have seen their next game end with more than 53 total points.

Pick: Take the Falcons at Saints to stay “Under” the highest number you can find


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