Nationals vs Mets Pick – Umpire Leans

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By Greg Dempson

Bovada Odds – Washington Nationals +115 vs New York Mets -135 Total 8 

With Friday’s win on Washington my MLB Every Edge record improves to 21–9–1 as I re-visit the Nationals and Mets series one more time.

In this 1:10 ET affair at Citi Field, the Nationals attempt to increase their lead vs. divisional rivals, the New York Mets. Washington has won two out of the first three in this series and they send Gio Gonzalez to the mound. He has certainly struggled of late going 1–7 in his last nine starts with an ERA of 7.66. In his most recent outing he took the loss vs. Milwaukee allowing 3 earned runs in 6 innings as the Nationals lost 5–2.

The Mets send Stephen Matz to the mound, who has also struggled of late with an ERA of 5.94, WHIP 1.561 in his last three starts. Matz has faced the Nationals once in his career, on May 25 of this season, winning 2–0.

Around the Diamonds

· Gonzalez is 7–1 at Citi Field with an ERA of 1.53 in 12 career starts.

· The Mets average 3.8 RPG vs. lefties this season as well as 3.8 RPG in afternoon contests.

· The Nationals are averaging 5.0 RPG vs. lefties this season as well as 5.0 RPG in afternoon affairs.

· The Mets are averaging 3.6 RPG vs. division rivals while the Nationals average 4.4 RPG.

· Washington is 18–8 at Citi Field the past three seasons as well as 38–14 in their last 52 games.

· Home plate umpire Marvin Hudson has the Mets at 1–4 in his last four behind home plate at Citi Field while the Nationals are 3–1 when on the road in their last four with Hudson calling balls and strikes. One of those Washington wins, with Hudson behind home plate, was on May 18 when Gonzalez pitched at Citi Field when the Nationals defeated the Mets, (7–1,) as he allowed one run in 6.3 innings.

All Systems Go
· Play against any National League team with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season, (applies to the Mets,) backed by a team that averages 1.25 or more home runs per game on the season. This system is 161–121 and +82.90-units when playing against the Mets.

· With Yoenis Cespedes out of the starting line-up for the Mets, (he might be available to pinch-hit,) and Dale Murphy wielding a hot bat for Washington, (he’s batting .438 with 6 home runs including 19 homers in 12 games vs. the Mets,) I’ll back the underdog Nationals once again.

Nationals vs Mets Pick

My Every Edge selection is on the Washington Nationals at +121.

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