by Greg Dempson
Toronto Raptors +.6.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5 Total 208.5, (7:05 ET on TNT)
It took Toronto six games to “pass the Bucks” while the Cavaliers swept the Pacers in four straight and the defending champions enter tonight’s contest with eight days of rest. Will the Cavs be rested or rusty? Toronto has certainly been on their game from a defensive perspective in the playoffs as they’ve allowed more than 100 points in only one of their six contests vs. Milwaukee.
Cleveland allowed the Pacers 108, 111, 114 and 102 points. In their meetings this season Cleveland won (94-91) in Toronto on October 28 then when hosting the Raptors on November 15, as 6 point favorites, the Cavs won again, (121-117.) Cleveland won for a third time on December 15 at Toronto, (116-112,) and in their season finale the Raptors defeated Cleveland on the road, (98-83,) on April 12 with James, Irving and Love out of their line-up.
From a statistical point of view here are some first half and full game offerings.
First Half Systems
· Play against home favorites in the first half after one or more consecutive wins while playing three or less games in 10 days. This system is 16-07 ATS this season as well as 71-31 = 70% ATS the past five seasons when playing against Cleveland in the first half. The home favorite has been favored by 4 points in the first half and that is exactly what the first half line is, (-4.)
· Play on first half road underdogs who outscore their opponents by 3+ points per game when playing against a foe that’s off two straight games where both teams scored 100 or more points. This system is 65-30 = 68% ATS the past five season with the average first half line being 4 points.
· After a combined score of 205 or more points in four straight games, play home teams under in the first half when the O/U is between 100.5 to 105.5 points. This system is 93-174 = 65% to the under since 1996 and +71.70-units as well as 16-36 = 69% to the UNDER this season.
· After three or more consecutive wins, (applies to Toronto,) play said team under in the first half when playing a team that’s off four or more consecutive wins. This has one amazingly well this season going 06-21 = 78% to the under as well as a lengthy history of success of 268-393 = 59.5% to the under since 1996 an +98.20-unit of profit.
Full Game System
· Following an upset win as an underdog, (applies to Toronto,) play the game under the total as long as the O/U is between 200 to 209.5 points and their opponent is off a road win. This system is 38-64 = 69% to the under the past five seasons as well as 12-25 = 67.6% to the under this season. The average total has been 204.5 in this system with an average combined score of 199.9 PPG. (As of this repot the O/U is 208.5.)
Houston Rockets +5.5 at San Antonio Spurs -5.5 Total 213, (9:35 ET on TNT)
Will the Rockets be able to explode vs. San Antonio’s defense? The Spurs allowed an average of 96.9 points per game as a host while the Rockets averaged 113.5 PPG on the road. Their highest scoring game this season was during their last meeting a game won by the Spurs, (112-110.) The other games were lower scoring, (101-99,) (106-100,) and (102-100.) I lean to the dog getting +7 tonight.
First Half Systems
· Play on first half underdogs when revenging a close loss to an opponent by 3 points or less when playing against opponent that’s off two consecutive wins against a division rival. This system is 40-13 = 75.5% ATS since 1996. The average first half line has been 3.5 points vs. a score that’s averaged 49.2 vs. 49.6.
· After covering the spread in two or more games, play against teams winning between 60% to 75% of the games in the first half when hosting team with a straight up winning record. This system is 133-78 = 63% ATS the past five seasons. The average first half line in this system has been just under 3 points with a very close first half score, 49.6 vs. 50.4.
Full Game System
· In the second round of the playoffs, play all games to sail over the total when the O/U is 210 or greater, this system is 71-36 = 66% to the over as well as 21-04 = 84% to the over the past three seasons. The average total has been slightly more than 215 points. (This system won last night as Washington and Boston sailed well over the total.)