NBA Pick: Back in The Game

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By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle: Warriors +2 vs Cavaliers -2 Total 206.5

Three games with three blowouts, what can one expect in game four? I wish I knew. It was hard for me to fathom how the Cavaliers could win by 30 points in game three, (120–90,) after getting blown out in games one and two.

Home court worked for Cleveland in game three just as it did for the Raptors in their previous series vs. Cleveland. After losing by a combined 48 points in games one and two at Quicken Loans Arena, Toronto returned home for games three and four and won back-to-back contests to tie that series 2–2.

I hate to use that cliché, (must win,) but Cleveland does not want to return to Oakland down 3–1 in the series.

Shooting the 3’s

· No team is as good as it looks when they win nor as bad as they would appear when they lose. In a best of seven playoff series, games are about making adjustments, sometimes it’s due to injuries, going small, perhaps benching a starter due to poor play and giving their 6th man a start in place of a regular starter, the variables are numerous. Coaches can and will game plan, but ultimately it boils down to who shoots better and or who defends better.

· In the first two games at Golden State the Cavaliers averaged 6 made 3’s per game. The Warriors averaged 12 in games one and two.

· It was a role reversal when shooting and making the “3” in game three as Cleveland made 12 of 35 while the Warriors attempted 33 3-point shots while making only 9.

· The Warriors were defeated in all aspects of the game being crushed on the glass, (60–41.)

· James cannot do it on his own and he most certainly didn’t have to carry the team in game three as Kyrie Irving outscored Curry and Thompson combined, (30–29 points,) and collected more assists that the “Splash Brothers,” (8 to 4) while committing fewer turnovers (2 vs. 8.)

· The first three playoff games have produced 94, 96 and 95 points in the first half. This evenings first half total is 103.5.

· In their previous eight meetings, prior to the first three games in this years playoffs, the combined first half scores were: 114, 87, 88, 101, 96, 81, 92 and 98. So, seven out of those eight contests were on the low end of 103.5. Those eight games produced full game totals from a low of 194 to a high of 214.5

· In a game involving two good 3 point shooting teams, with each team shooting 36.5% or better, play the first half under the total when the O/U is 100.5 to 105 points, (applies to the Warriors,) an average ball handling team, 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers vs. a poor pressure defensive team, 14.5 turnovers. This system is 1–8 to the under this season as well as 15–36 = 70.6% the past three seasons as well as 67–121 = 64% to the under since 1996.

· From game 43 out, in a game involving two good 3 point shooting teams, (36.5% or greater,) play home teams under the total in the first half when the first half O/U is greater than 100 points, after a game where they made 12 or more 3 point shots. This system is 9–23 = 72% to the under the past three seasons as well as 26–51 = 66% to the under since 1996.

NBA Pick

My Every Edge selection for game 4 is a play on the Warriors and Cavaliers to stay under at 103.5 points in the first half.

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