NBA Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics Game 5

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Pinnacle Odds: Cleveland Cavaliers -10 at Boston Celtics +10 Total 215.5

by Greg Dempson

I believe it’s not a question of what team will face Golden State but rather when……when will the Cavaliers begin play vs. the Warriors for a third consecutive time? Each team has won a title, will this potential best out of three series evolve into a best out of 5 championship? Is this the start of a two team Cavs/Warriors dynasty?

Neither Cleveland or Golden State can compare with the success of the Patriots as New England has appeared in seven Super Bowls the past 14 seasons.

So, can the Celtics pull one more rabbit out of the hat and thus travel to Cleveland for a sixth game? With Boston playing without Thomas they managed the unthinkable and won game 3 in Cleveland and they were also competitive in the first half in game 4 before getting rolled in the second half and now trail 3-1 in the series.

After scoring only 11 points and turning the ball over 6 times in game 3, (due to perhaps a flu bug,) LeBron James tallied 34 points along with 6 assists while grabbing 5 rebounds as the Cavaliers won going away, (119-99.)

Cleveland opened at -9 and they’ve been bet up to -10 with the total sitting at 214.5/215/215.5 as of this report.

The previous four games have first half totals combining for 104, 116, 103 and 100 points with both games played in Boston staying under the first half total.

Here are some first half and full game systems on this game 5 potential elimination contest.

First Half Systems

· From game 43 out, play on first half favorites of 6 or more points when they’re a good shooting team (45.5% to 47.5%) and playing against an average defensive team (43.5% to 45.5%,) a good ball handling team 14.5 or less turnovers per game when playing against a poor pressure defense of 14.5 or less turnovers per game. This system is 27-08 = 77% ATS the past five seasons as well as 90-48 = 65% ATS since 1966. The average first half line in this system has been 7 points vs. an average first half margin of victory of 9.6 points, (the average score = 54.5 vs. 45.0 for a combined average score of 99.5 first half points.).

· Play all home teams that allow an average of 103 or more points per game to stay under the total in the first half when they’re off a game whereby they allowed 110 or more points. This system is 215-293 = 58% to the under in the first half and +56.50-units with an average combined score of 106.6 points vs. an average total in this system of 107.8.

· After beating the spread by 48 or more combined points in their last 10 games, (applies to Cleveland,) play said team under the total in the first half when the first half O/U is greater than 100 points. This system is 246-331 = 57% to the under the past five seasons and +60.40-units.

Full Game System

· Play against underdogs when off an ATS road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams each winning between 60% to 75% of their games. This system is 50-15 = 77% ATS since 1996 as well as 6-0 ATS the past three seasons.

NBA Pick

I offer up three opinions on game 5, Cleveland at -6 in the first half, the first half to stay under the total of 108.5 and Cleveland at -10 or less to win the full game.