NBA Pick: Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers Game 3

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Pinnacle Odds: Golden State Warriors -3.5 at Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5 Total 227

by Greg Dempson

I’m positive that Cleveland has referenced their 0-2 start in the finals last year, (when losing the first two games in Oakland,) before returning home and eventually winning the championship on Golden State’s court in game 7.

The difference between last season’s success and this years’ final is “Barnes and Nobel.” Barnes, as in Harrison Barnes is gone and Nobel is indeed Kevin Durant. He has been unstoppable in the first two games of the playoffs while averaging 35.5 PPG, 11 rebounds and 7 assists.

The Cavaliers do not have the line-up that is capable of stopping both Durant and Curry, (Stephen is averaging 30 PPG, 10.5 rebounds and 11 assists per game.) In game 2 Klay Thompson scored 22 points making 8 of 12 shots.

The Warriors are the first ever NBA team to go 14-0 in a postseason. If they win Game 3 tonight Golden State will pass the 1992/1993 Pittsburgh Penguins for the most consecutive playoff wins by any major professional sports team.

I am not suggesting there will be a four game sweep but Cleveland will be very hard pressed to win back-to-back championships.

LeBron, Love and company will have to play a near perfect game tonight to not fall behind 3-0 in the series. In game 3 last year the Cavaliers won by 30 points and they became the first team in NBA history to win a championship after being down 3-1.

Second half adjustments has not worked for Cleveland in the first two games in Oakland as the Cavs lost by 13 points in game 1 and by 11 points in game 2.
Here are some winning systems and my thoughts on game 3

First Half Systems

· Following two consecutive road losses by 10 or more points, play on home teams in the first half when revenging a road loss to an opponent by 10 points or more. This system is 30-13 ATS the past three seasons as well as 50-21 = 70% ATS the past five seasons.
· Play all teams over the total in the first half when the O/U is greater than 105 points when one of the teams has won 12 or more of their last 15 games and playing only their second game in five days. The average first half total in this system has been 110 points vs. an average score in the system of 114.6 combined points, (tonight’s first half total is 115.) This system is 67-27 = 71% to the over in the first half the past five seasons.

Full Game Systems

· Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are winning 75% or more of their games when off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. This system is 34-11 = 75.6% ATS the past five seasons.
· After successfully covering the spread in three or more contests and winning 75% or more of their games, play all teams under the total when the O/U is greater than or equal to 200 points when playing a team with a winning record. This system is 47-87 = 65% to the under since 1996.

NBA Picks

I have opinions on Cleveland in the first quarter at pick ’em as well as the Cavaliers at pick ’em in the first half. My third opinion is on Golden State in the third quarter at -2, (once again the books are paying attention.) I also have very small leans to the home dog for the full game as well as the under.

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