NBA Pick: Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz Game 3

  • by

Pinnacle Odds: Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 at Utah Jazz +1.5 Total 197

by Greg Dempson

With center Rudy Gobert still sidelined the Jazz are in unfamiliar territory as they are usually very strong when defending points in the paint. In game two the Jazz allowed 60 points in the paint in their straight up (99-91) loss but ATS cover. If Gobert was healthy, I would make this line favoring the Jazz by 4 points. Since he is definitely out in tonight’s game, which tips at 10:00 at the Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City. With Gobert out head coach Quin Snyder plans has extended Derrick Favors’ playing time, up from just over 17 minutes in his final regular season games to over 35 minutes in the playoffs. He’s averaged 14 PPG in the post season to go along with 6.5 rebounds.

When you are down a key player in the post season, getting off to a good start in the first quarter is paramount. In game two the Clippers shot 65% from the field in the first quarter and also held the Jazz to 29% from the floor in the first quarter.

The Clippers will try and force the Jazz into an up-temp game and it will be a challenge for Utah as the Clippers are 100% healthy and Griffin, Paul and Jordan combined for 63 out of the teams 99 points in game two.

Under Angles

  • Utah is 06-13 to the under when off a straight up loss.
  • The Clippers are 2-6 to the under in their last eight quarterfinals games.
  • The Jazz are 18-31 to the UNDER vs. teams that average 106+ points per game the last two seasons.
  • The Clippers are 07-19 UNDER the total when playing with two days’ rest.
  • While I do believe the full game has a good chance to stay under the total I will opt for a recommendation on the first half total instead.
  • In their last seven games the FIRST HALF scores totaled, (93,) (104,) (90,) (105,) (79,) (77) and (99) points.

80.60-units on Profit When Betting the First Half Under

  • When a playoff series is tied, play the first half under the total. This system is 234-338 = 59% to the under since 1996 and +80.60-units.
  • When I “tighten” the system, and the playoff series is tied plus the first half total is between 95.5 to 100.5 the success rate improves to 44-92 = 68% to the under since 1996 and 08-22 = 73% to the UNDER the past three seasons. in Review 

  • My selection last night on the Grizzlies in the first half was a winner and I am now 16-16-01 with my basketball selections.

NBA Pick

Onto this evening’s selection, I will make a small play on the Clippers/Jazz under 99.5 points at -117 in the first half.