NBA Pick – Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trailblazers

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Pinnacle Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder +1 at Portland Trailblazers -1 Total 219

by Greg Dempson

The ball tips at 10:30 ET at the Moda Center in Portland and it’s their third meeting of the season with each team holding  serve on their home court, the Trailblazers won as the host on December 13, (114-95,) as 2.5 point favorites holding Russell Westbrook to only 20 points. The Thunder took care of business at home on February 5 as 4.5 point favorites, (105-99,) with Westbrook “going off” for 42 points.

The Trailblazers return home off a four game road trip while going 1-3 straight up and ATS with their only win and cover at Orlando vs. the Magic. Portland has been mired in a slump going 3-7 straight up in their last 10 and 2-8 ATS. Home court has also been a disappointment this season with a straight up record of 14-13, (12-15 ATS.)

The Thunder enter this contest of a modest hot streak winning seven of their last 10 contests including four in a row. OKC is 12-17 straight up away from home and 13-16 ATS. The Thunder has dropped their last four road games by more than 2 points and their last road win was at New Orleans on January 25. Will the additions of Doug McDermott and Taj Gibson from the Bulls at the deadline help the team in their first road game with those two players?

Winning Angles

  • Oklahoma City is 12-25 ATS in road games after covering four or five of their last six ATS as well as 12-23 ATS in road games after having won four or five of their last six games the last two seasons.
  • Portland is 5-0 straight up when hosting the Thunder in their past five meetings so with a small line of -1.5 or -1, the money line on the host team is worth a look.
  • The home team is also 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Super Systems

  • Play against all teams when the line is + or -3 points, (applies to the Thunder,) when they’re off a close straight up win by 3 or less points and allowing an average of 103+ points per game. This system is 57-25 = 69.5% ATS since 1996.
  • Play on all teams when the line is + or -3 points, (applies to Portland,) after allowing 105 or more points when playing against an opponent that’s a close win by 3 points or less.This system is 47-25 = 65% ATS in the past five seasons.

Every Edge in Review

  • With wagered games that are greater than “Beer and Pizza ones,” I am 5-7 ATS at Every Edge.

NBA Pick

My EE selection for tonight is a top opinion on the Portland Trailblazers at -1 point.