NBA Pick: Raptors vs Cavaliers

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lebron james

Everybody calm down!


By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Sports: Toronto Raptors +11 vs Cleveland Cavaliers -11 Total 196.5

The ball tips at 8:30 ET this evening at Quicken Loan Arena as the Cavaliers attempt to regain the series lead vs. the Raptors. What a difference a venue makes. After running roughshod over Toronto at home, (115–84 and 109–89,) Cleveland “double-dribbled” at the Air Canada Centre losing back-to-back games, (99–84 and 105–99.) Do the Cavaliers get their swagger back at home tonight? The odds makers have left the line basically the same as the first two games in the series with the Cavs being installed as 11 point favorites as of this report. The total is pegged at 196.5 down from the opening number of 199.

It’s the first half that interests me in tonight’s game and I note that Cleveland is favored by 7 points with the total at 101.

Cleveland has gone cold shooting 3’s, colder than a bank managers heart! Toronto made adjustments and packed the paint, forcing Cleveland to shoot from outside.

Meanwhile, Kevin Love is colder than the other side of your pillow. Love went 1 for 9 in Game 3 and only 4 of 14 in Game 4 and was benched in favor of Channing Frye.

As for the Raptors, the stellar play of DeRozan and Lowry, scoring a combined 67 points on 28 out of 43 shooting.

From Beyond the Arc

· The Cavaliers are 14–03 ATS after back-to-back games whereby they allowed 55 or more first half points winning the full games by an average of 14 points per full game. As mentioned tonight’s first half line is –7.

· From game 43 out, following a straight up win by 6 or less points, when you play against underdogs in the first half that average between 98–102 points per game and they’re playing against a team who allows an average of 98–102 PPG. This system is 36–13 = 73% ATS the past three seasons when playing against the Raptors as well as 40–14 = 74% ATS the past five seasons.

· From game 43 out, when we play on first half favorites of – 6 or more points that shoot between 45.5% to 47.5% and they’re playing against an average defensive team that allows between 43.5% to 45.5%, a good ball handling team allowing 14.5 or less turnovers per game vs. a poor pressure defense, (14.5 or less turnovers,) the system is 18 – 02 = 90% ATS the past three seasons as well as 81 – 42 = 66% ATS sine 1996.

NBA Pick

My Every Edge section for tonight is on the Cleveland Cavaliers at –7 points in the first half.

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