NBA Pick: Shot to the Balls

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By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle: Cleveland Cavaliers +5 vs Golden State Warriors -5 Total 205

After three blowouts in games one, two and three, it was somewhat more competitive in game four, but, eventually it was business as usual for Golden State as they outscored the Cavaliers in the second half, (58–42,) winning by a final score of 108–97. With that win on Friday evening the Warriors have now won a season record 88 games surpassing the 87 won by the Bulls in the 1995–1996 season.

For the Warriors to win #89 this evening they’ll have to do so without Draymond Green as he’s been suspended because of his fourth flagrant foul of the postseason. Green will definitely be missed tonight with the lone exception being at the free throw line.

The line opened at – 7.5 and has been bet down to –5.5 as of this update. In the first two games at Oracle Arena the Warriors won 104–89 and 113–87. I believe tonight’s game will be low scoring especially in the first half. Looking back to the last six times that Golden State has hosted Cleveland the combined first half scores were, 99, 92, 101, 87, 95 and 96 points. If tradition “holds court” this evening I anticipate the under supported by the following systems.


· In the first half of the NBA finals, play the under. This system is 40–68 = 63% to the under since 1996 including 1–3 to the under in this years’ finals, 4–11 to the under the past three seasons as well as 9–17 to the under the past five years.

· When the first half total is between 100.5 to 105 points, in a game involving two good three point shooting teams, (hitting 36.5% or greater,) an average ball handling team, 14.5 – 16.5 turnovers, when playing against a poor pressure defensive team, less than 14.5 turnovers. This system is 68–121 = 64% to the under in the first half including 2–8 under this season as well as 16–36 to the under the past three seasons.

· Play home teams winning 75% or more of their games to stay under the total in the first half when the O/U is 100.5 to 105.5 points after covering 4 of their last 5 games ATS and playing a team with a winning record. The Average first half total in this system is 103 vs. an average first half combined score of 97.5 points for a success rate of 10–32 = 76% to the UNDER since 1996.

NBA Pick:

My Every Edge offering for this evening is on the under at 103.5 points in the first half.

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