By Greg Dempson
New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys
I’m 10–07 ATS with my NFL Every Edge selections this season. My College record is 9–4 ATS for a combined record of 19–11 = 63% ATS. Every Edge has also posted up my first Bowl selection and features the Arizona Wildcats vs. the New Mexico Lobos in the New Mexico Bowl. Onto, tonight’s NFL recommendation.
The New York Jets are 3 point road favorites tonight in Dallas and take on a Cowboys team that has but one home win this season, (back in week 1,) when the New York Giants handed them the game. The Cowboys are 1–5 straight up and ATS as a host being outscored by an average of 29.0 to 19.0 in those six contests. Since moving to Jerry’s World, with or without a healthy starting quarterback, Dallas hasn’t fared well.
Will the Jets come up flat and overlook tonight’s contest? That’s a question a lot of sports broadcasters are asking. I don’t think so as the “Fly Boys” have two division games on deck to close out the regular season, week 16 at home vs. the Patriots and a road trip to Buffalo vs. the Bills to close out the season. The Jets are tied with the Steelers and Chiefs for the second Wild Card spot. However, if all three teams win out, the Jets will miss the post season so I expect them to be focused tonight.
The Jets enter tonight’s game with a top 10 offense as well as a top 10 defense. Last week the Jets throttled the Titans 30–08 with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing for 263 along with 3 touchdowns as their defense limited the Titans to 24 rushing yards. The Jets allow an average of 78.9 rushing yards per game this season and in their past three contests they’ve allowed a combined 110 yards.
During their three game winning streak Fitzpatrick has thrown for 930 passing yards with 8 touchdown passes and zero picks.
Ready in the Red Zone
Fitzpatrick has 19 touchdown passes in the red zone this season while throwing no interceptions. He has also been fleet of foot and hasn’t been sacked once all season when under center in the red zone.
The Cowboy start Matt Cassel tonight, (1–6,) as a starter this season. Cassel has struggled and last week he threw for only 114 yards and it will be a long day if the Jets force them to throw by limiting Darren McFadden. Dallas is ranked #28 in the league in total offense. The Cowboys have scored 14 or less points in 5 of their last 9 games.
View From the 50 Yard Line
· The New York Jets are 6–0 this season when they force 2 or more takeaways.
· The Cowboys are ranked #32 in the league with only 8 takeaways. (Last season they were ranked #2 with 31.)
· The Jets are 5–2–1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
· Dallas is 3–11 ATS in their last 14 contests.
· The Jets are ranked #1 in run defense.
· Rolando McClain is out tonight due to a concussion plus corner back Morris Claiborne has a hamstring injury and is doubtful.
· Cassel has 5 touchdown passes vs. 6 interceptions.
· The Cowboys are 2–8 in their last 10 games and in play outside their division this season they’re 1–7.
· The Jets are a non division road favorite of –3 to –7 points with back-to-back division games on deck. In this situation, since 1999, all non division road favorites in this system are 20–10–02 = 66.7% ATS. If they are a favorite in week 15 the non division road favorite teams are 4–0 straight up and ATS winning by an average score of 24 points per game.
New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys Pick
My Every Edge NFL Game of the Week is on the New York Jets at –3.
For additional winning systems and free selections, visit www.gregdempson.com.