By Greg Dempson
Pinnacle Odds: San Diego Chargers at Carolina Panthers Total 48.5
After losing at home to Tampa Bay, the Chargers are on life support with regards to making a post season appearance. They are 5–7 and in a division where Oakland at 10–3 is the leader in the Wild Card race while Kansas City, who has defeated the Raiders twice, is in first place with an identical 10–03 record. Denver is 8–4 and also in the mix along with Pittsburgh an Miami at 7–5 following by Buffalo, Indianapolis and Tennessee all grouped at 6–6. Technically the 4–7–1 Bengals are still in the mix.
As for the Panthers, that Super Bowl appearance is but a distant memory now as they enter this game at 4–8 and the variables are impossible to calibrate at this stage of the season.
Carolina returns home off back-to-back West Coast loses to Oakland and Seattle. The Panthers are –1.5 points with the total pegged at 48.5. Carolina is 3–3 at home while the Chargers are 2–4 on the road. My interest in this game is on the total supported by a couple of systems and numerous angles.
Over Achieving
· The Chargers are 4–2 to the over averaging 25.5 PPG on offense while allowing 27.2 PPG on defense.
· Cam Newton/The Panthers are 18–10 to the over the past two seasons.
· The Chargers are 07–03 to the over on grass surfaces this season.
· The Panthers are 13–03 to the over after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game.
· San Diego is 60–38 to the over in non-conference games.
· Carolina is 33–15 to the over after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games.
· The Chargers are 22–06 over the total in road games vs. awful passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse.
· The Panthers are 11–01 over the number vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards per attempt the last two seasons.
All Systems Go
· When a Pacific Coast team lost straight up at home and is now a non conference road dog, play the over. This system is 12–01 to the over.
· When the over/under is between 42.5 to 49 points, play all teams that average 27 or more PPG to sail over the total when playing against a poor defensive team that allows between 23 to 27 PPG, after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. This system is 29 – 08 = 78% ATS since 1983 and 14–03 to the over the past 10 seasons.
Last Week in Review
· I lost my selection on the Giants last week an my pre and regular season record is 11–05–01 ATS.
NFL Free Pick – Chargers at Panthers
If this total was 46.5 or lower I would have bet this game over the total for substantially more, but it isn’t! I am still making a wager on the Chargers and Panthers to sail OVER the total of 48.5 points as my Every Edge selection for this week.