NFL Free Pick – Cowboys at Browns

  • by

dallas cowboys dak prescott

By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: Dallas Cowboys -7.5 at Cleveland Browns +7.5 Total 49

The Cowboys continue to roll along with only one loss, in week 1 vs. the Giants. Dallas is averaging 162  rushing yards per game on the road with an average of 34 attempts a game, (4.8 YPC.) How does this play into the Browns stop unit? Cleveland allows an average of slightly less than 144 rushing yards per game.

Teams that run the ball effectively have seen far more overs cash than unders this season. All teams that are able to run for 140 or more yards per game are 35–15 = 70% to the over this season. Last week four out of the five teams that rushed for 140 or more yards sailed over the total.

The Browns are allowing an average of slightly less than 30 points per game while Dallas is scoring an average of 27 PPG on the road. Cleveland has allowed opponents to score 28 or more points in all but one of their games this season.

In Review

My selection last week was on the Patriots, a winner vs. the Bills. That result improved my Every Edge record to 8–3 in the NFL this season.

Moving On Up

  • Former Raiders and current Browns head coach Hugh Jackson has strong tendencies to sailing over the total with him on the sidelines as the present streak is 15–03 to the over.
  • Are the Cowboys capable of scoring 20 or more points? I believe they are… and when Cleveland can score 20 or more the Browns are 16–01 to the over. Cleveland has scored 20 or more in five of their last seven contests.
  • Browns QB Josh McCown has sailed over the total in 9 out of his last 10 starts, averaging more than 51 combined PPG.

All Systems Go

  • When the over/under is between 42.5 to 49 points and after beating the spread by 21 or more combined points in their last three games, play road teams with a winning record to sail over the total when playing a losing team. This system is 26–09 = 74% to the over the past five seasons as well as 93–51 = 65% to the over since 1983.
  • After six or more consecutive losses, play home teams over the total when playing against an opponent that’s off two or more consecutive wins. This system is 45–19 = 70% to the over since 1983.

NFL FREE PICK – Cowboys at Browns

My Every Edge NFL selection for this week is to take the Cowboys and Browns over 49 points.


For additional winning systems, selections angles and Tweets, visit