NFL FREE PICK – Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

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By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: Minnesota +6.5 at Green Bay -6.5 Total 43

After starting the season at 5–0 and entering their bye week the Vikings and most sports enthusiasts were thinking a post season appearance was all but a formality. Their post bye week performances have the Vikings all but saying “bye” to a post season appearance as they would have to defeat Green Bay and then Chicago plus get a lot of help, believe me, it’s not going to happen. Their two wins have come against Jacksonville, (who just fired their head coach,) and vs. an Arizona team that has been a disappointment and mystery to many, as the Cardinals are also on the outside looking in with regards to the post season!
The reason for their demise could be two fold, Sam Bradford isn’t a great quarterback and their offensive line is a “Mash” unit as no less than five players have been injured. Adrian Peterson has returned but he is getting long in the tooth for a running back and it is tough to run when your line cannot block for you or protect your quarterback.

Against the Line

· The Vikings are 31st in total yards and #32 in rushing the ball this season.
· The Packers are on a four game winning streak, (3–1 ATS,) and they have found a running game with transplanted wide receiver Ty Montgomery.
· The Vikings are now a dome team and face a Packers squad at Lambeau Field.
· In their seven loses since their bye week the Vikings have scored, 10, 16, 20, 13, 15 and 6 points. Green Bay is averaging 26.3 PPG at home and in their last three games they’ve up that ratio to 29.7 PPG.
· Minnesota is averaging 14.0 PPG vs. division foes while the Packers are averaging 26.0.
· Sam Bradford is 1–5 ATS vs. teams that are winning between 52% to 62% of their games while Aaron Rodgers is 17–05 ATS vs. teams winning between 45% to 55% of their games.

Last Week in Review

· My selection was on the under in the Steelers/Bengals game at 44 points, I personally won with the under at 44.5 and the total climbed as high as 45.5. So, if you followed my lead you did no worse than push and I’m certain some of you won. The game for record purposes here at Every Edge will be graded as a push. My Every Edge record is now 11–06–02 including the preseason and regular season.

All Systems Go

· Play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed one or less turnovers and are now playing against an opponent that’s off a game with a turnover margin of –3 or worse. This system is 54–22 = 71% ATS the past 10 seasons.

Free Pick

My NFL Every Edge selection for this week is on the Green Bay Packers at –6.5 points.

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