NFL Free Pick

By Greg Dempson

Pinnacle Odds: Seattle Seahawks -9.5 at San Francisco 49ers +9.5 Total 43

Seattle can clinch the number three seed with a win vs. the 49ers so I expect a concerted effort by them. With a win the Seahawks will seek to earn a first round bye in the first round of the upcoming playoffs and they’re visiting a team they have beaten six consecutive times, the 49ers. Seattle at 9–5–1 Seattle has clinched no worse than the fourth seed in the NFC, which guarantees them at least one home game. A Seattle win and a loss by Atlanta to the Saints would have the Seahawks “leap-frog” the Falcons and garner the number three seed. A Seattle loss would move them down to a number four seeding behind the winner of Sunday’s game between the Packers and Lions, who are tied with a 9–6 record.

Down Under

The Seahawks have held the 49ers to a combined 44 points on offense in their last five games.
The 49ers are 14–30 to the under in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards per attempt.
Seattle and San Francisco are 2–6 to the under in their last eight games.
The 49ers are on a 07–20 UNDER streak in their last 27 home games.

Last Week in Review

My selection on the Packers was an easy winner vs. the Vikings. My Every Edge record is 3–0 in the preseason as well as 09–06–01 in the regular season.

Super UNDER-Whelming Systems

Play all favorites on 7 or more points to stay under the total when they’re off a game where they were also a favorite the week before and playing on a natural surface. This system is 06–33 = 85% to the under.
From game nine out and in a game involving two teams that average 18–23 PPG, play the under when the over/under is between 42.5 to 49 points and one of the teams is off a game whereby 60 or more total points were scored. This system is 19–46 = 71% to the UNDER since 1983.
Following a road win vs. a division rival, (the 49ers defeated the Rams,) play the home team under the total when hosting a division foe. This system is 12–29 = 71% to the under the past five seasons.
In the second half of the season, and after losing two out of their last three games ATS, (applies to the 49ers,) play teams winning 25% or less of their games to stay under the total. This system is 29–55 = 66% to the under the past five seasons.

My Every Edge selection for the final week of the regular season is to take the Seahawks/49ers under the total of 44 points at –120. (I would also play at 43 or 43.5 but no lower than 43.)