NFL Over/Under Picks: Cowboys at Giants

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The 2012 NFL season starts Wednesday in New York, where the Giants look to defend their title against Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys

New York has won nine-straight as a Week 1 home fave, outscoring opponents 13.1 to 8.9 in the first-half. For tonight’s game the oddsmaker offers the first-half line at Giants -3 and O/U 22.5


NFL Odds at Pinnacle Sports: Giants -4 and Over/Under 45

This marks the fifth straight season Dallas has opened on the road (3-1 ATS) and second consecutive year at MetLife Stadium, although last year it was Mark Sanchez and the Jets playing host. Dallas led that game 24-10 in the fourth quarter but a wild series of turnovers swung the tide in New York’s favor. Dallas recovered to win the following week in overtime at San Francisco and they’ll make a similar voyage this year for Week 2 at Seattle, but no one would be caught dead looking past today’s matchup.


The Giants have won five of the last six in this series SU and ATS, New York is 9-4 SU/ATS at home since 1999 and in the past four years, they’ve scored 30-plus points three times (29.8 PPG avg), holding the Cowboys to 21.3 points per contest.


Super Bowl winners are 11-0 straight-up in Week 1 action since 2001 and Green Bay’s 42-34 win over the Saints in 2011 improved the ATS mark to 8-1-2. Denver was the latest Super Bowl winner to begin the following season with a loss and since 2004, when the NFL started opening the season with its Super Bowl champ hosting the party, home teams are 8-0 SU, those eight wins coming by an average of 10.0 points per game.



Dallas lost the turnover battle in three of its first four road games last season but managed to turn things around, just in time for a Week 17 showdown vs. the G-Men where Dallas was minus-2. They’ll try and take care of the football with RB Murray rushing behind a revamped line, but QB Romo is sure to go after New York’s injured secondary.


Romo’s top two deep threats (Austin, Bryant) are expected to start but security blanket TE Witten (abdomen) is doubtful. The key for Romo will be knowing when and where to get rid of the football. Costly giveaways haunted this offense early last season, when all three losses were by four points or less.



Online sportsbooks have seen steady pressure on a New York side that is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS as a Week 1 home favorite. The Over/Under, which peaked at 47, took a nosedive early this week that could reverse before kickoff. The Giants outscored opponents by an average of 26.1-17.6 in those games (43.8 total), producing 6 overs and 3 unders but the average posted line was 38.1 – More than TD less than today’s post.



In the first week of professional football betting last season the overs cashed at a 12-3-1 rate but defenses this year should be better prepared against the pass. Dallas devoted a lot of attention to its secondary and the pass rush from both these teams will limit time in the pocket. Replacement officials is a complete wild card that may or may not impact the scoring but at 45 points or more, we’re going with the under.

Pick: Take the Under


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