By Greg Dempson
The up tempo play of the 49ers vs. a defensive minded team in the Rams make for an interesting first half opinion on the total for this NFL pick. IF the Rams get the ball first and they can keep San Francisco’s offense on the sidelines by running Gurley with success, I feel this prop beer an pizza wager has a chance.
The 49ers defense has already lost starting nose tackle Ian Williams for the season with an ankle injury plus starting defensive end Arik Armstead and key backup at nose tackle, Glenn Dorsey, are currently nursing injuries.
San Francisco quarterback Blaine Gabbert threw for 354 yards and helped beat the Rams, 19–16 in week 17 last season so the Rams will have to do a better job limiting his passing yardage.
· Even though the last three games stayed under the totals for the full game, the first half scores in their last three meetings were 16–10, 20–06 and 10–10 so exercise caution with this Monday night recreational wager.
· When the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 points in a conference game, play the first half under the total when a team had a losing record last season, (applies to the 49ers.) This system is 21–50 = 70% to the under in the first half the past five seasons as well as 10–25 = 71% to the under the previous three seasons.
· Play teams that won between 40% to 49% of their games last season to stay under the total in the first half, (applies to the Rams.) This system is 04–20 = 83% to the under in the first half the past three seasons as well as 10–38 = 79% to the under the previous five seasons.
· If the team that won 40% to 49% of their games is playing a losing team from last season then the first half is 09–32 = 78% to the under as well as 03–19 = 86% to the under the past five seasons.