NFL Pick – Team Total Prop for TNF

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By Greg Dempson

Denver Broncos Team Total 7.5 points 1st Half  

The last six times the Chiefs have faced the Broncos the totals have been, 49, 49, 50.5, 49, 41.5 and 43 with the first numbers listed being the most current. So, we have an over/under of 42 points for the first Thursday night game of the season. That differential of 7 points from last years’ two games to this season is a significant drop.

Now I do realize that Peyton Manning has been under center for 21 drives, (including the preseason,) without a single offensive touchdown as last week the Broncos scored 4 field goals and a pick 6 resulted in their only touchdown. I never read too much into what the “experts” say, it was only last week the masses had Minnesota cruising vs. the 49ers and we know what happened in that game. This Manning “is over the hill talk” is nonsense in my humble estimation.

Wade Phillips is running a 3–4 defense and last week Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware attacked from the edge and wrecked havoc on Joe Flacco.


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View From the 50 yard Line

– Since becoming a Bronco Manning is 41–13 straight up plus he is also 6–0 vs. the Chiefs since starting for Denver including 4 consecutive straight up wins at Kansas City.

– The last time the Chiefs defeated Denver the quarterback for the Broncos was Tim Tebow.

– Kansas City was last favored in this series in 2011 at –3 points and the Chiefs lost straight up 17–10.

– The visitor is 23–4 ATS in the last 27 Kansas City games and that serve held true last week as the Chiefs, (visiting Houston,) won straight up. To be sure it is just a trend, but a good one.

– Denver is 12–0 straight up, (11–1 ATS) in their last 12 division road games.

– Peyton Manning is 18–1 straight up vs. division opponents as a Bronco and he has thrown for 1,736 yards with 16 touchdowns vs. 3 interceptions when facing the Chiefs.

– The Chief are 1–8–1 ATS as a home favorite in season openers.

– The Broncos are 9–1 ATS in road openers and 8–0 ATS in the first of back-to-back games when facing a division opponent.

– Denver is also 12–0 straight up in their last 12 division road games.

– The first half total in this game is 21 and in their 6 meetings since Manning became Denver’s starter the combined first half scores have been 27, 31, 35, 27, 24 and 13 points, so I am not touching the under even though head coach Gary Kubiak is running a more controlled offense.

– If I had to take a side in this game I would back Denver at +3 but I have opted for the Broncos team total in the first half instead.

NFL Pick:

I’ve invested in the Broncos team total over 7.5 points.

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